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Prediction markets for Phase
OptionVotes
1843
1480
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.79%chance
5810091
OptionVotes
2309
433
OptionVotes
3992
190
Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Aug 11, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61.58%chance
1004230
OptionVotes
1821
1442
By 2026, at least 1 phase 3 clinical trial shows positive results with DMT or 5-MeO-DMT for a mental disorder.
May 26, 3:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.81%chance
91470
OptionVotes
2012
497
Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
Apr 18, 5:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
61.07%chance
301229
OptionVotes
1172
860
Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
Apr 17, 10:29 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM
51.44%chance
331060
OptionVotes
1063
928
Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.26%chance
15884
OptionVotes
1068
895
Will any ex-Hololive member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:21 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
27.18%chance
5637
OptionVotes
1637
611
Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20%chance
10274
OptionVotes
1035
975
Will any ex-Nijisanji member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:23 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
43.06%chance
1150
OptionVotes
1150
870
OptionVotes
1136
880