Phase News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Phase
OptionVotes
1589
1587
Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Aug 11, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
80.01%chance
1065480
OptionVotes
2661
1345
Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
14.32%chance
182292
OptionVotes
2260
591
Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
Apr 18, 5:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
61.07%chance
301229
OptionVotes
1172
860
Will Phase 2A of the Blue Line Metro in Bangalore be functional by 2028?
Jan 8, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
68.53%chance
31147
OptionVotes
1476
678
Will any ex-Hololive member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:21 PMJun 1, 10:15 AM
18.38%chance
101107
OptionVotes
2107
475
Will any Phase Five or Six Marvel movie have a budget under $150 million?
Jan 4, 7:16 PMJan 12, 4:59 AM
1.23%chance
5754
OptionVotes
664
9
Will any ex-Nijisanji member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:23 PMJun 1, 10:15 AM
32.63%chance
4460
OptionVotes
1437
696
Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20%chance
10274
OptionVotes
1035
975
[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?
Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM
15.79%chance
5156
OptionVotes
219
69
OptionProbability
28
20
15
12
12
12
Will cevumeran start a Phase III trial for pancreatic cancer by 2030?
May 26, 9:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
57.43%chance
212
OptionVotes
78
63