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Prediction markets for Phase
OptionVotes
1843
1480
Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Aug 11, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.05%chance
1034645
OptionVotes
1857
1607
Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
Apr 18, 5:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
61.07%chance
301229
OptionVotes
1172
860
Will any ex-Hololive member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:21 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
21.75%chance
7897
OptionVotes
1897
527
Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.26%chance
15884
OptionVotes
1068
895
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?
Mar 15, 9:17 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM
12717
OptionProbability
30
30
15
10
9
5
1
Will Phase 2A of the Blue Line Metro in Bangalore be functional by 2028?
Jan 8, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.77%chance
3647
OptionVotes
1025
976
Will any ex-Nijisanji member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:23 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
34.2%chance
3410
OptionVotes
1387
721
Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20%chance
10274
OptionVotes
1035
975
How delayed will the CMRL's( Chennai Metro Rail Limited ) Phase 2 Orange line before it is fully operational ?
Jun 4, 1:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.89%chance
3106
OptionProbability
325
126
Will any Phase Five or Six Marvel movie have a budget under $150 million?
Jan 4, 7:16 PMJan 12, 4:59 AM
41%chance
233
OptionVotes
80
62
OptionProbability
28
20
15
12
12
12