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OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
New James Bond actor is presented
"The New Norm" ends
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
A new supreme court justice appointed
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
USA experiences a recession.
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
Approval < 35%
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
trump gets hospitalized
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Fair elections in 2028
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
Vances have another kid
US national bitcoin reserve created
The US leaves the World Health Organization
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Government shutdown
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
A major war in Asia occurs
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
Trump announces he is tired of winning
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Joe Biden dies
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
A national ban on gender-affirming care
The department of education gets desolved
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Dow rises above 65,000
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Approval < 25%
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Tesla
Another pandemic
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Repeal obamacare
Trump says a racial slur
Trump visits Africa
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
54 or more Republican senate seats
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
JD Vance elected President
Trump runs for a third term
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Laura Loomer gets any government role
Record level unemployment
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Trump gets covid (again)
Constitutional Amendment
BTC falls below $38,000
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
New national park created
Trump and Obama shake hands
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Starship lands on Mars
10% fewer government agencies
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump dies
Trump gets shot
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump bans abortion nationwide
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
"covfefe" posted again
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
US Invasion of any North/South American country
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
John Bolton indicted
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
American Manned Lunar Landing
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
New US national anthem
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Cannabis is federally legalized
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Trump and Melania divorce
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
Constitutional Amendment
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump loses the fake tan
A hurricane will be nuked
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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OptionProbability
Other
Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)
Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets
Subscription plan
On-site advertising
B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)
Transactions fees from trades
Interest on held cash
Selling data / API access / colocation
House rake on games (e.g. poker)
Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)
Job board / hiring program
Sales of digital goods
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OptionProbability
J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.
K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)
C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.
Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)
A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.
B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.
I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.
O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)
G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.
E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.
D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.
H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.
L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)
If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.
F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.
N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.
You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.
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OptionProbability
Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.
AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)
Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.
Other
Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out
Someone solves agent foundations
Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.
AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.
We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6
The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable
Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.
Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.
Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.
Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence
Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens
Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing
There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.
Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.
Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm
Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do
Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive
The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.
AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly
Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.
an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.
I've been a good bing 😊
We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.
The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines
Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.
AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.
A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough
AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.
Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough
There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%
SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8
Robot Love!!
AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk
The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.
Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.
Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome
AIs never develop coherent goals
Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.
Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works
For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.
An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.
We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.
God exists and stops the AGI
Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.
Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.
Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough
Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.
AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.
Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.
Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.
Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.
Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.
Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).
Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)
Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees
A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees
Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.
Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol
Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.
High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.
Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)
Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.
First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.
Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside
ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.
Something else
Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)
AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default
AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).
Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.
AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.
Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.
Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.
Orthogonality Thesis is false.
"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.
Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.
A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.
We successfully chained God
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
17573
7138
OptionProbability
Trump will be the POTUS
FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned
Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities
Elon removed as doge head
Pope dies
Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court
Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
GPT 5 releases
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US
Hollow Knight Silk song released
This whole market gets more than 300 traders
LEMMiNO releases a new video
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
Biden gets hospitalised
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office
Early general elections in Pakistan
Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025
Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)
T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions
Ali Khamenei assassisnated
Mike Johnson is not Speaker
Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025
Ali Khamenei dies a natural death
In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth
Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence
Californian independence gains enough signatures
Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives
Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination
Dodgers win World Series
Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)
Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)
At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA
A country leaves NATO
Phillies win the World Series
Harry and Meghan divorce
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations
2025 hotter then 2024
Biden dies
Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025
Putin dies
After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved
Congress repeals any tariff
Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025
Chuck Schumer resigns
United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%
Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19
Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series
China annexes Taiwan
Filibuster abolished
Zelensky Assassinated
Article 5 of NATO invoked
OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released
Ukraine internal coup attempt
FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it
Kate and William divorce
Sam Altman gets fired again
At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA
Putin assassinated
NATO at war with Russia
Trump assassinated
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%
Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt
US-China war
A country leaves the EU
A nuclear bomb explodes
2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"
US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025
United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth
One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model
The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release
USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement
Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds
LK99 replicates at last
Greenland Joins USA
End of the world by celery
Ukraine joins NATO
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30
A US state secedes from the union
51st US State
Peter Turkson elected Pope
GTA 6 releases
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero
Harris will be the POTUS
Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31
Francis is always Pope
New pope takes name "Francis"
First papal conclave >= 10 ballots
First conclave elects Pope on first ballot
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89
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81
79
69
61
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55
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33
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OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Dead Internet theory
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The CIA killed JFK
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Human didnt evolve from apes
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
China made covid 19 in a lab
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
A cure for cancer has already been found
Princess Diana was assassinated
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Bush did 9/11
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
QAnon
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
China was not genociding Uyghurs
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
Transfer at a wet market
Accidental transfer in a lab after research gain-of-function modifications
Accidental transfer in a lab with no modifications
Transfer in the wild to a civilian
Non-zoonotic origins
Transfer in the wild to a virus researcher
Planned deliberate release
Other
It does not exist / is not a new virus / 5G / aliens
Deliberate release by a rogue employee
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42
5
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.
imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv
Biden voted for trump
There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US
The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines
The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria
Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight
Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain
5G cellular networks were intentionally developed to create health issues or mind control.
Donald Trump is secretly working to dismantle the cabal associated with QAnon
17
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OptionProbability
The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)
TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government
Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made
The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict
The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season
The US has spies working in the North Korean government
"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started
The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects
The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests
The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries
John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated
Mattress Firm is a money laundering front
The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning
Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence
The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China
Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine
The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light
The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup
COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome
Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins
In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different
Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double
COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term
Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened
There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth
Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist
Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.
A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland
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OptionProbability
K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.
I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.
C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.
B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.
Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)
A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.
E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.
J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.
O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)
D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.
F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.
L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)
G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.
H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.
N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.
You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.
If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.
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OptionProbability
Explain "Krantz" thoroughly enough on the internet, that the idea itself becomes alive and takes over the world.
Solve education
Other
Travel to the Network State School
Go to LessOnline and Manifest
Go to Contact in the Desert.
Go to the Monroe Institute.
Work for society library.
Focus on finding a life partner
Recieve a grant to create an open-source home school program where parents and kids work collectively to create lessons and earn crypto credentials.
Start a podcast with livestream forecasting and collective reasoning.
Go on Lex Fridman and explain how to solve the control problem by solving education.
Publish an alignment plan
Find a new job
Travel to a new country
Learn a new language
Go on Liv Boeree's Win/Win podcast and explain how to kill Moloch by solving the control problem, by solving education.
Join or start an intentional living community of the rationalist variety.
Write a book
Code a indie video game
Start a religion that worships math, logic and constitutions of propositions as mechanisms that optimize communication, which is good. A Kant cult.
Run for political office as an open source Manchurian candidate that acts in accordance with how the network state votes.
Play poker professionally.
Take blog writing seriously.
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