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What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
Jan 30, 3:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
243107393
OptionProbability
91
91
90
89
85
84
80
76
75
74
74
71
70
69
67
55
52
51
50
46
46
44
42
42
41
40
40
39
39
38
38
37
35
35
34
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
Sep 11, 7:17 PMSep 11, 7:13 PM
23517063
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
90
75
72
70
59
53
45
44
42
37
35
34
34
32
32
28
24
24
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
20
18
17
16
15
15
15
15
12
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
7
7
7
5
5
4
4
0
0
0
Will Google integrate Bitcoin Lightning payments in the Play Store by the end of 2025?
May 17, 12:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
0.47%chance
3815297
OptionVotes
14482
69
OptionVotes
1157
945
If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?
May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM
63.04%chance
796801
OptionVotes
14151
8635
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
Will a Google Play alternative make at least 1b in annual revenue in 2026?
Oct 8, 11:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.79%chance
81875
OptionVotes
2875
348
OptionVotes
1374
728
Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2026?
Aug 9, 5:28 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM
51.84%chance
9945
OptionVotes
1038
964
[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
7207
OptionProbability
77
44
OptionVotes
293
215
Will WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously through mid 2028?
Jan 2, 8:11 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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