OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
10+ goals in any match
2+ red cards in any match
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
3+ penalty shootout
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
South American team reaches semi-final
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Player throws captains armband
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Champion is unbeaten
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Spain goes further than France
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Bottle thrown on field
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Team finishes match with 9 players
25+ people arrested at stadium
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Champion is a first place group stage winner
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
Trump still alive at end of final match
“Puto” chant at match
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Neymar plays in a match
Player dies during World Cup
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
Player tears their ACL
Players cleat falls off their foot
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Team loses after leading 2-0
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties
Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts
Panenka penalty to be scored
Player scores 8+ goals
Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16
A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game
A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals
Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]
An even number of games go to a shootout
Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match
Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)
More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)
England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)
Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)
Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight
German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final
In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver
Infantino and Trump sitting next to each other at any match
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (QF)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (QF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (QF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (QF)
USA strikes Iran anytime from start of quarterfianals to ending of them
Trump flies in the Qatari Air Force One to final
Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla goes on another rant about Mbappe before end of final
France, Spain, England & Argentina all go to Half Finales
Mikel Merino finishes the World Cup with more or the same number of goals as Lamine Yamal
A French player leaves the field injured against Spain (like Mendes and Courtois)
Goal scored in stoppage time (SF)
Over 3.5 goals scored (SF)
Goal scored from a header (SF)
Goal is disallowed for offside (SF)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)
Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?
match
Over 4.5 goals in semi finals
Substitute scores in semi finals
Spain ball posession under 55.5% in semi final
Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match
English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match
Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal
Both Teams to Score Argentina/ England in 90minutes plus stoppage time. (Not Extra time)
Match ends in a draw in regular time (F)
Final combined match score is an odd number (F)
Goal is disallowed for offside (F)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (F)
Match is won in extra-time (F)
Goalkeeper ends match with a clean sheet (F)
Substitute scores a goal (F)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (F)
Spain first to score (F)
Match is tied at halftime (F)
First yellow card given to Argentina (F)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (F)
Trump touches in any way the Messi at final match/stadium
Argentinian player leaves injured in the final (like Mendes, Courtois and Saliba)
Score 0-0 in first part of extra time
Spain wins
Argentina lose Spain
World Cup team coach resigns or is fired before end of July (after final)
Asian player gets the red card
FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion
Asian player misses penalty kick
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
No red cards issued in the Final match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
15+ cards in any match
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Goal scored within 1st minute
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
20+ penalty goals
30+ penalty goals
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Asia team reaches semi final
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Player bit during match
Bald person gets the red card
Football is coming home?
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Headbutt during match
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Player gets spat on during match
Ronaldo gets in referee face
England loses on penalties
More own goals than red cards in tourney
VAR overturns second yellow card
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Player shits in the pants during match
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Trump attends 3 or more games
All 3 host countries win the opener
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Flares in stands during match in USA
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Elon Musk attends match
Betting scandal reported
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Any host nation in quarter final
US goes further than Mexico
Canada goes further than US
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Goal scored from own half
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Team captain gets red card
Ronaldo scores before Messi
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team gets removed or disqualified
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
2 UEFA teams in final
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Any match is canceled or postponed
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Fans invade field during match
Major security incident
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match is forfeited
Bonnie Blue attending a match
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Salt Bae attending a match
King Charles attends match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Trump dancing at match
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Winning team has a foreign manager
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Another match with 3+ red cards
Players / members of team attempt to defect
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Freddy attends the final match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Messi gets a yellow card
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
Messi scores on every game he plays
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Ronaldo does not start
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
5+ hat tricks
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
Over 14.5 own goals scored
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Emmanuel Macron attends match
The Netherlands reaches half-final
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
France becomes finalist
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32
16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)
Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay
FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay
Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in
Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)
Norway becomes finalist
Panenka penalty to be bottled
Three straight games going to penalties
Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout
Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal
Player with 9 or more assists
Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast
Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast
Any Trump attending BIH v USA match
Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup
World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout
A host country reaches the semi-finals
Belgium becomes finalist
Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]
In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches
Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review
🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV
Own goal is scored (Rof16)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)
Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)
Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)
Mbappe doing the dictator point
Red card in CAN v MAR?
In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
3 continents reach semifinals
France's appeal successfully overturns Michael Olise's yellow card before the quarter-finals kickoff
Player doing lip trill shown in slow motion during final match broadcast on FOX
Trump attending the USA Belgium match
Trump takes credit for USA win within 1 day
Trump mentioned during USA BEL Fox broadcast today
Pitch Invader during USA BEL match today
Frances' tournament ends before Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race
"Is the TV broken?": There will be 4 or more On-Field Reviews (OFR) from the Quarterfinals onwards
"Shocking decision, Ref!": Any goal disallowed by VAR in the Quarterfinals AND any goal disallowed by VAR in the Semifinals (according to ESPN)
There will be a single leader in the Golden Boot ranking after the Quarterfinals (no tiebreak applies)
Norway player displays the flu like symptoms during match
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (QF)
Own goal is scored (QF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (QF)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (QF)
Announcer says "Tom Brady" during France v Morocco
Player gets straight red card (QF)
Trump picks team he is supporting to win for the final game
Sam Altman attends final
JD Vance attends final
Morrocans stealing the towels or water bottles during game
Any Morrocan gets the red card
Morocco player picks up a ball during France possession 3+ times
France player picks up a ball during Morocco possession 3+ times
Shirtless player on field during match (QF)
Messi misses another penalty shot - includes shootout (QF-F)
Messi subbed out before the end of a match he played in (QF-F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (SF)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (SF)
Over 0.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (SF)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (SF)
All teams score 1+ goals (SF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (SF)
Own goal is scored (SF)
Player gets a straight red card (SF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (SF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (SF)
Shirtless player on field during match (SF)
Match is won in extra-time (SF)
Yellow card given for simulation (SF)
Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (SF)
Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?
Over 17.5 corners in semi finals
Mbappe & Oyarzabal to record 2+ shots on target in semi final
Gavi shown card in semi final
Otamendi shown card in semi final
Anything occurring to make it historical final
The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee
Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final
Mbappé leads Golden Boot race after 3rd place match & Messi overtakes in Final to win the Award
Mbappé less than 60 mins on the pitch in Consolation Final 3./4.
Sore Losers: Any player or official from the losing team to instantly remove or reject their silver medal after the Final
Own goal is scored (F)
Intruder on field during match (F)
Goal scored in stoppage time (F)
Over 2.5 goals scored (F)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (F)
Penalty kick missed during regular/extra time (F)
Goal scored from a header (F)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (F)
Player gets a straight red card (F)
Penalty kick is given in 2nd half (F)
Argentina last to score (F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (F)
Goal scored within the last 15 minutes (F)
Match ends 1-1 in regular time (F)
Final score is 1-2 or 2-1 (F)
Match ends with penalty shoot-out (F)
Winning team has lower total ball possession (F)
Both teams score 1+ goals in 2nd half (F)
Goal is scored from outside the penalty box (F)
Over 1.5 goals scored (F)
All teams score 1+ goals (F)
First yellow card in 2nd half given to Spain (F)
Goal scored in first 15 minutes of 2nd half (F)
Argentina first to score in 2nd half (F)
No yellow cards given in 1st half (F)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (F)
Yellow card given for simulation (F)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (F)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (F)
Argentina gets a penalty in regular time in the finals
Banner referencing historical territorial dispute visible during final or 3rd place match
"Albiceleste Cardiac Arrest": Argentina scores the game's final goal from 75' onward to win or force extra time (F)
"Pessi's Redemption": Messi scores a penalty and wins the Golden Boot
Javier Milei tweets VLLC or "Viva la libertad carajo" before the winning captain lifts the trophy (F)
The final score in the final is an internet certified funny number e.g. 2-1, 6-7, 6-9, 4-20 (ascending and descending order allowed)
Score 0-0 in second part of extra time
Argentina scores 1-1 in extra time
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OptionProbability
Will the 2026 World Series feature the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers?
Will Cleveland and Tampa Bay combine for more stolen bases than home runs in ALCS Game 1 on October 12, 2026?
Will the 2026 World Series matchup be either the Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers or the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays?
Will the first pitch of ALCS game 2 (10/13/2026) be a strike (or hit)?
Will both Robert Gasser and Blake Snell strike out at least one batter in the first inning of Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 3 on October 14, 2026?
Will the first pitch of Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026, be swung at by the batter?
Will the Rays and Guardians combine for more strikeouts than total bases through the first three innings of ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026?
Will both the Rays and Guardians have recorded at least one extra-base hit AND at least one walk apiece through six complete innings of ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026?
Will the first pitch of Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 4 on October 15, 2026, be put into play?
Will the Brewers and Dodgers combine for more walks than hits in the first inning of NLCS Game 4 on October 15, 2026?
Will Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 4 on October 15, 2026, feature at least one home run, at least one stolen base, and at least one fielding error?
Will both Tampa Bay and Cleveland strand at least one runner in the first inning of ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026?
Will Tampa Bay and Cleveland combine for at least 7 batting strikeouts AND no more than 2 runs through three complete innings of ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026?
Will Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026, end on a strikeout AND feature at least one home run by the losing team?
Will Tampa Bay’s first batter reach base safely AND Cleveland’s first batter be retired in ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will the 2026 World Series champion win at least one game without hitting a home run AND lose at least one game despite hitting a home run?
Will the first pitch of Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026, be taken for a ball?
Will the team leading Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026, after six complete innings have fewer hits than the trailing team?
🔥 ROOKIE RATTLED: Will the Rays score before Logan Henderson records his sixth out in Game 2?
🔥 RUN IT BACK: Will the Rays steal a base in World Series Game 2?
🔥 CROOKED NUMBER: Will either team score 3+ runs in a single inning in Game 2?
🔥 NINTH-INNING NERVES: Will Game 2 be tied or within one run after eight innings?
🔥 FIRST-INNING FIREWORKS: Will either team score in the first inning of Game 2?
🔥 BULLPEN BATTLE: Will both starting pitchers leave Game 2 before completing six innings?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays combine for at least 18 hits but no more than 1 home run in World Series Game 3 on October 26, 2026?
Will the losing team hit more home runs AND draw more walks than the winning team in Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 4 on October 27, 2026?
Will the Brewers and Rays combine to leave at least 16 runners on base AND score 7 or fewer total runs in World Series Game 4 on October 27, 2026?
Will game 4 of 2026 world series go to extra innings?
Will Drew Rasmussen be the starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays in World Series Game 5 against the Milwaukee Brewers on October 28, 2026?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers clinch their first World Series championship by winning Game 5 against Tampa Bay on October 28, 2026, AND commit at least 2 fielding errors in the game?
Will any Rays player receive a gold glove for the 2026 season?
Will Brewers Manager win NL manager of the year for 2026?
Will PCA win NL MVP for 2026?
Will any MLB player hit 50+ home runs during the 2027 regular season?
Will either the Tampa Bay Rays or Milwaukee Brewers trade away a player from their 2026 World Series roster before January 1, 2027?
Will Tarik Skubal sign with a new MLB team OR Freddy Peralta re-sign with the Tampa Bay Rays by December 31, 2026?
Will any player on the 2026 World Series winning roster be traded before Opening Day 2027?
Will both the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers have at least one player record 25+ home runs AND 20+ stolen bases during the 2027 MLB regular season?
Will any 2026 division cellar-dweller finish first in the 2027 Grapefruit or Cactus League?
Will either 2026 World Series team finish below .500 in 2027 spring training?
Will at least 3 MLB players record 30+ home runs AND 30+ stolen bases each during the 2027 regular season?
Will any MLB player record at least 200 hits AND 30 home runs during the 2027 regular season?
Will any MLB player hit 40+ home runs AND steal 40+ bases during the 2027 regular season?
Will at least three MLB teams win 100+ regular-season games in 2027?
Will any player sign a contract larger than $765 million prior to the start of the 2027 MLB season?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays trade Junior Caminero OR the Cleveland Guardians trade José Ramírez before Opening Day 2027?
Will the 2026 World Series champion repeat as champion in 2027?
Will the 2026 World Series feature more home runs than stolen bases?
Will Cleveland and Chicago combine for 20+ strikeouts AND 3+ home runs in the deciding ALDS game?
Will any player hit 3+ home runs in a single game during the 2026 postseason?
Will Skubal and Misiorowski combine for 15+ strikeouts AND allow 3+ home runs in NLCS Game 1?
Will the losing team hit more home runs AND strike out fewer times than the winning team in NLCS Game 1?
Will the American League win the 2026 World Series?
Will either manager challenge a call AND lose the challenge during NLCS Game 1?
Will the 2026 World Series feature the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers?
Will the 2026 World Series feature the Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers?
Will the 2026 World Series feature the Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers?
Will Shohei Ohtani strike out at least twice AND the Dodgers win NLCS Game 2 against Milwaukee on October 12, 2026?
Will either ALCS Game 1 (Guardians–Rays) or NLCS Game 2 (Dodgers–Brewers) feature 5+ combined stolen bases by both teams on October 12, 2026?
Will ALCS Game 1 (Guardians–Rays) and NLCS Game 2 (Dodgers–Brewers) combine for 6+ total home runs on October 12, 2026?
Will Guardians starter Parker Messick record more strikeouts than Rays starter Freddy Peralta, but Tampa Bay win ALCS Game 2 on October 13, 2026?
Will the team that scores first lose the game AND the winning team record zero stolen bases in Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 2 on October 13, 2026?
Will the Guardians and Rays combine to leave 15+ runners on base AND score fewer than 7 total runs in ALCS Game 2 on October 13, 2026?
Will Cleveland and Tampa Bay use at least 10 different pitchers combined in ALCS Game 2 on October 13, 2026?
Will Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 2 on October 13, 2026, feature at least one triple AND at least two home runs?
Will the losing team record more pitching strikeouts than the winning team in Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 2 on October 13, 2026?
Will Joe Adell or Junior Caminero homer in tonight’s ALCS game 2 (10/13/2026)?
Will the first pitch of NLCS Game 3 (10/14/2026) be a swinging or called strike?
Will Blake Snell record 7+ strikeouts AND the Dodgers win NLCS Game 3?
Will Shohei Ohtani be left out of the starting lineup OR substituted/pinch-hit for during Game 3?
Will Robert Gasser pitch fewer than 5.0 innings BUT the Brewers' bullpen allow 1 or fewer earned runs (tonight 8/14/2026)?
Will William Contreras or Brice Turang record a home run AND a stolen base combined in tonight's game (tonight 8/14/2026)?
Will the team that scores first lose the game AND the winning team record fewer than 4 total hits? (tonight 8/14/2026)
Will the Dodgers and Brewers combine to leave 16+ runners on base AND score fewer than 8 total runs? (tonight 8/14/2026)
Will the NLCS game 3 feature a multi-run home run in the 8th inning or later OR go into extra innings?
Will both the Rays and Guardians leave at least one runner on base in the first inning of ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026?
Will the Rays and Guardians combine for at least 20 hits but no home runs in ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026?
Will the losing team steal more bases AND commit fewer fielding errors than the winning team in Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026?
Will the Rays and Guardians use 10+ pitchers combined AND score fewer than 8 total runs in ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026?
Will Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax record more strikeouts than Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams AND the Rays lose ALCS Game 3 on October 15, 2026?
Will the Dodgers have more strikeouts than hits AND lead the Brewers after three complete innings of NLCS Game 4 on October 15, 2026?
Will the Brewers and Dodgers combine for at least 15 strikeouts AND fewer than 5 total runs through six complete innings of NLCS Game 4 on October 15, 2026?
Will Milwaukee starter Robert Drohan record more strikeouts than Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow AND Los Angeles win NLCS Game 4 on October 15, 2026?
Will the Dodgers avoid elimination by winning NLCS Game 4 against Milwaukee on October 15, 2026, despite allowing more hits than they record?
Will the final out of Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 4 on October 15, 2026, be recorded by strikeout AND will the losing team have hit at least one home run?
Will the 2026 World Series last at least 6 games AND feature at least one walk-off victory?
Will the first pitch of Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026, be hit into fair territory?
Will the team leading Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026, after six complete innings have fewer hits than its opponent?
Will the losing team steal more bases AND draw more walks than the winning team in Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026?
Will the Rays and Guardians use at least 11 different pitchers combined AND hit at least 3 home runs in ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026?
Will the winning team commit at least 2 errors AND strike out at least 12 times while batting in Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026?
Will the losing team in the 2026 World Series hit more total home runs AND steal more total bases than the World Series champion?
Will Cleveland’s Petey Halpin OR Patrick Bailey hit a home run while Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda combine for zero home runs in ALCS Game 4 on October 17, 2026?
Will the first pitch of Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026, be a foul ball?
Will the Rays and Guardians combine for at least 3 hits but zero runs in the first inning of ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will Cleveland and Tampa Bay combine for more strikeouts than hits AND at least one stolen base through three complete innings of ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will the Rays and Guardians combine for 12+ strikeouts AND 4 or fewer total runs through six complete innings of ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will Rays starter Drew Rasmussen record more strikeouts than Guardians starter Parker Messick AND Cleveland win ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda combine for fewer hits than Cleveland’s José Ramírez and Steven Kwan in ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will the losing team record more doubles AND more stolen bases than the winning team in Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will Cleveland’s Petey Halpin OR Patrick Bailey hit a home run AND Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero record at least 2 strikeouts in ALCS Game 5 on October 18, 2026?
Will either the Tampa Bay Rays manager OR the Cleveland Guardians manager win the 2026 American League Manager of the Year Award?
Will Cleveland’s leadoff batter reach base safely without a hit AND Tampa Bay’s leadoff batter record a hit in ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026?
Will the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays combine for at least 3 hits but zero runs in the first inning of ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026?
Will Cleveland and Tampa Bay combine for at least 7 batting strikeouts AND fewer than 3 runs through three complete innings of ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026?
Will Tampa Bay’s Freddy Peralta strike out at least 8 Cleveland batters AND the Rays lose ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026?
Will a Tampa Bay Rays player batting sixth or lower in the starting lineup hit a home run AND the Rays win ALCS Game 6 against Cleveland on October 19, 2026?
Will the losing team hit more home runs AND draw more walks than the winning team in Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays clinch the 2026 American League pennant by defeating Cleveland in ALCS Game 6 on October 19, 2026, AND win by exactly one run?
Will the Rays announce Rasmussen as the starter for game 1 of the 2026 World Series?
Will the 2026 World Series champion (Rays or Brewers) lose Game 1 AND win the championship in 6 games or fewer?
Will the first pitch of Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026, be called a strike?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers combine for more walks than hits AND score zero runs in the first inning of World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026?
Will the Rays and Brewers combine for at least 2 stolen bases AND at least 5 strikeouts through three complete innings of World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026?
Will the losing team in Rays vs. Brewers World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026, record more hits AND fewer strikeouts than the winning team?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays’ first batter reach base safely AND the Milwaukee Brewers’ first batter strike out in World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026?
Will either the Tampa Bay Rays or Milwaukee Brewers hit at least 2 home runs AND score 3 or fewer total runs in World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026?
Will either the Tampa Bay Rays or Milwaukee Brewers blow a lead of 3+ runs after the fifth inning AND lose World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026?
Will the winning team strike out at least 12 times AND score at least half of its runs on home runs in Rays vs. Brewers World Series Game 1 on October 23, 2026?
🔥 ACE MODE: Will Drew Rasmussen record 6+ strikeouts in World Series Game 2?
🔥 BAZOOKA BLAST: Will Junior Caminero hit a home run in World Series Game 2?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers’ first batter see at least 6 pitches AND strike out in World Series Game 3 against the Tampa Bay Rays on October 26, 2026?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers outhit the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning but trail on the scoreboard after one complete inning of World Series Game 3 on October 26, 2026?
Will the Brewers and Rays combine for at least 8 strikeouts AND fewer than 3 runs through three complete innings of World Series Game 3 on October 26, 2026?
Will either the Milwaukee Brewers or Tampa Bay Rays have more strikeouts than total bases from hits AND lead World Series Game 3 after six complete innings on October 26, 2026?
Will Tampa Bay’s Freddy Peralta record at least 8 strikeouts AND allow at least 3 earned runs while the Rays win World Series Game 3 against Milwaukee on October 26, 2026?
Will the losing team record more hits AND more stolen bases than the winning team in Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 3 on October 26, 2026?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays lead after six complete innings but lose World Series Game 3 to the Milwaukee Brewers on October 26, 2026?
Will the winning team strike out at least 12 times AND commit at least one fielding error in Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 4 on October 27, 2026?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays use at least 10 different pitchers combined AND hit at least 3 home runs in World Series Game 4 on October 27, 2026?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays combine for at least 3 stolen bases AND no more than 2 home runs in World Series Game 4 on October 27, 2026?
Will the team that scores first lose World Series Game 4 between the Brewers and Rays on October 27, 2026, AND finish with more hits than the winning team?
Will Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 4 on October 27, 2026, end with a strikeout AND will the losing team have stolen at least one base?
Will Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski strike out at least 2 of the first 3 Tampa Bay Rays batters he faces in World Series Game 5 on October 28, 2026?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers record more hits than the Tampa Bay Rays but trail on the scoreboard after one complete inning of World Series Game 5 on October 28, 2026?
Will the Brewers and Rays combine for at least 7 batting strikeouts AND zero home runs through three complete innings of World Series Game 5 on October 28, 2026?
Will the team leading Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 5 on October 28, 2026, after six complete innings have fewer hits AND more fielding errors than the trailing team?
Will Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski record at least 8 strikeouts AND allow no more than 2 earned runs, but the Brewers lose World Series Game 5 against Tampa Bay on October 28, 2026?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays avoid elimination by winning World Series Game 5 against Milwaukee on October 28, 2026, despite recording fewer hits than the Brewers?
Will the 2026 World Series MVP hit fewer than 2 home runs AND record at least 5 strikeouts as a batter during the series?
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100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
94
66
63
55
52
50
45
45
45
41
37
33
31
25
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
95
94
91
89
85
85
85
81
80
76
75
74
72
72
70
69
69
66
66
66
59
58
54
52
51
50
49
48
48
43
42
42
41
41
41
40
40
39
38
36
36
36
36
34
34
33
32
32
30
30
30
28
28
28
27
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23
21
21
21
20
19
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
14
11
11
10
8
7
7
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Javokhir Sindarov
Gukesh D
72
28
OptionProbability
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
A team principle gets replaced during the season
Hamilton gets a podium finish
WDC winner wins their first title
Lewis Hamilton wins a feature race
Kim Kardashian shown on F1TV in Ferrari garage during main race or qualifying broadcast
race cancelled or moved due to military operations
Esteban Ocon replaced before season end
We get a podium with three WDC champions
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
Verstappen finishes 2nd in the WDC
The top three drivers in the WDC will be from three different teams
No pit crew injuries during any race.
Eight GP without a full safety car deployment.
Lewis Hamilton gets a podium
George Russell finishes season behind Leclerc in standings
Bottas scores more points than Perez
Abu Dhabi and Qatar races cancelled
WDC 1 & 2 from same team
Hadjar scores at least half as many points as Verstappen
A technical directive changes regulations to stop a dominant team or forces to change something important in the cars (e.g., flexible wings in 2025, Ferrari in 2022 with TD39)
A rear-end accident because of super-clipping
Christian Horner starts a team principle position
Lance Stroll announces retirement
Neither Cadillac nor Audi finish WCC at the bottom
Hannah Schmitz departure from RBR announced
A driver gets a race ban due to penalty points
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
Reduced points awarded at Grand Prix (25% to 75% race completed)
We race at Imola
Lando Norris finishes WDC in the top 3
We race at Portimao
WCC is won with 5 or more races to go
A driver at Red Bull Racing gets replaced during the season
Mohammed Ben Sulayem steps down as head of FIA
Bahrain and Jeddah races take place later in the season
Lewis Hamilton announces retirement
Max Verstappen wins the WDC
WDC is won with 5 or more races to go
Aston Martin wins WCC
Fernando Alonso wins a race (feature or sprint)
WDC winner wins it by 10 points or less
Williams misses the first public test on Feb 11-13
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
84
84
79
65
52
50
50
35
33
32
28
26
22
22
16
15
15
14
11
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Worlds 2026 VG will be hosted on it
You can edit EVs of Pokémon in-game
Free to Play option on launch
Subscription option on launch (i.e. monthly / annual payment)
Microtransactions on launch
Released before 1st July 2026
Released before 1st January 2027
IVs are removed from the game
Worlds 2027 VG will be hosted on it
You can edit IVs of Pokémon in-game (Hyper Training)
Released before 1st January 2026
Battle vs NPC opponents (excluding any tutorial)
You can edit IVs of Pokémon in-game (Full Editing)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3241
1290
OptionProbability
95 or more unique champions played
100 or more unique champions played
Two or more Western teams reach the quarterfinals
Pentakill scored
Champion is played in three or more different roles
A team kills the Elder Dragon and then loses
Player scores 15 or more kills in a game
14 or fewer cumulative kills in a game
Champion is played 10 or more times with a <=25% winrate
Player dies 10 or more times in a game
Champion is played 10 or more times with a >=75% winrate
105 or more unique champions played
Game lasts more than 50 minutes
Korea vs. Korea finals
Game lasts less than 22 minutes
Reverse Sweep in a best-of-5 series
50 or more cumulative kills in a game
Shutout - A team wins a game without being killed by their opponents
Champion is banned in more than 90% of games
Any team lane swaps at level 1
Three or more pentakills scored
Morgana played in the jungle
A team has all three inhibitors down at the same time, then wins
A non marksman is top 5 pick rate in the Bot/ADC role
Teemo picked
Non-Korean, non-Chinese team reaches the semifinals
An LCP (APAC) team reaches the quarterfinals
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
67
55
51
50
40
39
36
32
24
24
21
21
20
11
10
10
5
0
0
OptionProbability
Will be Indian
Will do an English interview after winning on that same day
Will have won by his opponent resigning or quitting or other irregular outing at least one game
Every challenger he faces will not be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
In his first challenge, he will either beat an Indian challenger or lose to a non-Indian challenger. Indian meaning "ethnically Indian".
Will only be champion for ~1 year
He will marry while world champion
Will resign/quit or otherwise not defend his title during an official challenge match
He will stay champion until he marries. (marry then lose at next defense, YES), (marry + defend once, NO), (lose before marrying, NO),
Will defend his title at least three times
He will change citizenship or country he represents while world champion
He will become a father while world champion
Will lose the championship title to someone who has been world champion before
Will defend his title at least ten times
Every challenger he faces will be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
Will be Chinese
Will have entered candidates tournament at least two times
Will have been born in a current day EU country
Will be married
Will have a child
100
100
100
77
66
33
28
24
24
14
9
8
4
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1252
744
OptionProbability
Reach the Eastern Conference Finals but fail to make the NBA Finals
Make the playoffs but are eliminated before the Eastern Conference Finals
Reach the NBA Finals but lose
Miss the playoffs entirely
Repeat as NBA champions
47
24
12
10
7
OptionProbability
Atlanta
Columbus
DC
Grand Rapids
Indy
Orlando
Dallas
Los Angeles
Minnesota
NorCal
Omaha
Vegas
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

