Pokémon Unite News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

New national park created

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Approval < 35%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US national bitcoin reserve created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

A new supreme court justice appointed

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Joe Biden dies

Dow rises above 65,000

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump says a racial slur

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Kennedy Center is repurposed

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Tesla

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

BTC falls below $38,000

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump runs 4 president (physically runs >4x the average height of US presidents in a continuous go)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Deep funding cuts to nih, cdc, hhs, fda all implemented and becomes law

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

McDonald's reopens in Russia

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US Invasion of any North/South American country

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

American Manned Lunar Landing

Approval < 25%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

War is declared against another nation

Kennedy Center is demolished

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump loses the fake tan

10% fewer government agencies

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump breaks a bone in his body

Trump dies

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down and cease to exist

Trump runs for a third term

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump pumps a plump rump (grabs and moves back and forth someone else's butt)

World war 3 occurs and global war is launched

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Repeal obamacare

Trump is assassinated

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

54 or more Republican senate seats

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

United States becomes totalitarian dictatorship

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Other

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

JD Vance (Vice President)

AOC (NY Representative)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Marco Rubio (US SoS)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)

JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor)

Ted Cruz (Texas Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Donald Trump (45th President)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Stephen A. Smith

Cory Booker (NJ Senator)

Ruben Gallego (AZ Senator)

Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)

Other

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Someone solves agent foundations

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz [resolves NO]

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

Hacks like RLHF-ing self-disempowerment into frontier models work long enough to develop better alignment methods, which in turn work long enough to ... etc; we keep ahead of 'alignment escape velocity'

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

We successfully chained God

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"

[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)

[AUS] Red flag during qualifying

[AUS] At least 3 DNF

[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session

[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team

[AUS] winner has no WDC title

[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)

[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium

[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race

[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying

[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race

[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)

[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race

[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium

[JAP] Antonelli wins the race

[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying

[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race

[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race

[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race

[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race

[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions

[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying

[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race

[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] Red flag during qualifying

[MON] Red flag during the race

[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track

[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race

[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[MON] Three different teams on the podium

[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)

[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)

[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3

[BAR] Hamilton on the podium

[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5

[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)

[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes

[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits

[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying

[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)

[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[GBR] Sprint race is won by a driver ranked top-8 in the championship

[GBR] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

[GBR] Both Ferraris in top 4 in the main qualifying

[GBR] Both Ferraris finish the main race in top 4

[GBR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (main race)

[GBR] Both Racing Bulls finish the main race in top 10

[GBR] Antonelli and Russel gap within 10 seconds at the end of the main race

[SPA] Red flag in qualifying

[SPA] Antonelli wins the race

[SPA] An Audi reaches Q3

[SPA] Physical Safety Car during the race

[SPA] A Ferrari on the podium

[SPA] Hadjar finishes the race in top 10

[SPA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[SPA] Yellow flag first lap

[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[HUN] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[HUN] An Aston Martin reaches Q2

[HUN] An Audi reaches Q3

[HUN] Russel qualifies outside the top 4

[HUN] Antonelli on the podium

[HUN] Hulkenberg finishes the race in top 10

[HUN] Both Racing Bulls finish the race in top 10

[ZAN] Leclerc on the podium of the sprint race

[ZAN] Non-Mercedes pole position (main qualifying)

[ZAN] Gasly finishes in top 10 in the main race

[ITA] Physical Safety Car during the race

[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[ITA] Italian driver wins the race

[ITA] Red Flag during the race

[ITA] Yuki Tsunoda scores a point

[ITA] Antonelli finishes the race in top 6

[MAD] Yellow flag first lap of the race

[MAD] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MAD] Kimi Antonelli wins the race

[MAD] Russel qualifies outside the top 5

[MAD] Verstappen on the podium

[MAD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[MAD] Colapinto scores points

[MAD] Linblad scores points

[MAD] An Audi scores points

[MAD] Three different teams on the podium

[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AZE] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AZE] Verstappen on podium

[AZE] A Williams finishes in top 10

[BHR] Intermediate or Wet tyres used in qualifying or race

[BHR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[BHR] Antonelli scores more points than Russell

[BHR] Verstappen wins the race

[BHR] Aston Martin scores at least one point

[BHR] An Alpine reaches Q3

[BHR] An Audi reaches Q3

[BHR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Russel

[BHR] Lawson scores points

[BHR] A Ferrari on the podium

[SIN] Same driver wins Sprint and feature race

[SIN] 3+ DNF in Sprint

[SIN] Same driver takes pole in the sprint and main qualifying

[SIN] A Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[SIN] A Ferrari on the podium of the main race

[SIN] Hadjar finishes in top 10 in the main race

[COTA] A Ferrari on the podium

[MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MEX] Kimi Antonelli wins the WDC Title

[MEX] Red flag during qualifying

[MEX] 4 or more DNF

[MEX] Verstappen on the podium

[MEX] Yellow flag first lap

[MEX] GP winner margin is less than 5 seconds

[BRA] Red Flag during qualifying

[BRA] Intermediate or Wet tyres used during qualifying

[BHR] Yellow flag first lap

[BRA] Impeding penalty during qualifying

Leave it open for the upcoming GP (tip jar)

[BRA] Brazilian driver reaches Q3

[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUS] Yellow flag first lap

[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)

[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day

[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session

[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session

[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)

[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start

[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped

[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race

[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium

[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)

[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)

[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?

[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF

[JAP] Yellow flag first lap

[JAP] Red flag in qualifying

[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying

[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3

[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)

[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)

[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues

[JAP] Verstappen on the podium

[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race

[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race

[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race

[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race

[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race

[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race

[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race

[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race

[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race

[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race

[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes

[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race

[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race

[BAR] Mercedes driver wins

[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4

[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying

[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)

[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium

[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race

[AUT] Red flag during qualifying

[AUT] Physical safety car during the race

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3

[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)

[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)

[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)

[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race

[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race

[AUT] Yellow flag first lap

[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid (main race)

[GBR] All 22 cars classified in the race

[GBR] Wet or Intermediate tyres used in any of quals or races (sprint and main)

[GBR] The same driver wins both races

[GBR] Red flag during the main race

[GBR] Same pole sitter in both the sprint qualifying and the main qualifying

[GBR] Pole position margin for the main qualifying is less than 50 milliseconds

[GBR] Hamilton wins the sprint race

[GBR] Both Ferraris on the podium of the sprint race

[GBR] Hadjar finishes in top 8 in the sprint race

[GBR] Physical or Virtual Safety Car in the sprint race

[GBR] Russel qualfies 5th or lower in the main qualifying

[GBR] An Audi reaches Q3 (main qualifying)

[GBR] 4 or more DNF/DNS (main race)

[GBR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race

[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[SPA] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qualifying or race

[SPA] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in the race

[SPA] Norris finishes the race in top 6

[SPA] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[HUN] Yellow flag first lap

[HUN] Red Flag during qualifying

[HUN] 4 or more DNF/DNS

[HUN] Ferrari pole position

[HUN] Both Racing Bulls reach Q3

[HUN] Video drone hits the sign over the track around turns 8-10

[HUN] A Ferrari on the podium

[HUN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race

[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda scores at least one point (sprint counts)

[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda finishes either sprint or feature race ahead of Lawson

[ZAN] Same winner of the sprint and main race

[ZAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying or main qualifying

[ZAN] Ferrari pole position in the sprint qualifying

[ZAN] Antonelli scores more points than Russell over the entire weekend

[ZAN] Antonelli on the podium of the sprint race

[ZAN] Non-Mercedes driver wins the sprint race

[ZAN] Physical safety car during the main race

[ZAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race

[ZAN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race

[ZAN] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 in the main race

[ZAN] first and second driver finish with a gap of less than 5 seconds in the main race

[ITA] Red Flag during qualifying

[ITA] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[ITA] Ferrari driver wins the race

[ITA] Aston Martin driver scores points

[ITA] Hadjar drives in the race

[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in qual or race

[ITA] Gasly finishes the race in top 5

[ITA] Bearman scores points (top 10)

[ITA] A Ferrari on the podium

[ITA] Leclerc finishes the race ahead of Hamilton

[MAD] Leclerc misses race

[MAD] Red flag during qualifying or race

[MAD] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MAD] Carlos Sainz scores points

[MAD] At least five cars retire (DNF)

[MAD] Hamilton scores more points than Russell

[MAD] Leclerc crashes during any session and cannot participate in the rest of that session (FP, qualy or race)

[MAD] At least one car will be disqualified due to plank wear. Doesn't matter if they later get reinstated

[MAD] An Audi reaches Q3

[MAD] A Ferrari on the podium

[MAD] Antonelli leads at the end of the first lap of the main race

[AZE] Red Flag during qualifying or race

[AZE] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[AZE] One Aston Martin finishes the race (lapped ok)

[AZE] Lewis Hamilton finishes ahead of Charles Leclerc (race)

[AZE] Kimi Antonelli scores more points than George Russel

[AZE] An Audi reaches Q3

[AZE] A Ferrari on the podium

[AZE] Antonelli on the podium

[BHR] At least 5 cars DNS/DNF

[BHR] Mercedes double podium

[BHR] Three WDC winners on podium

[BHR] One team qualifies P1 and P2

[BHR] RBR double podium

[BHR] At least one car retires due to a collision with another car

[SIN] RBR double podium in main race

[SIN] Antonelli wins main race

[SIN] Aston scores at least one point over the weekend

[SIN] 5+ DNF in feature race

[SIN] Red Flag in the main qualifying

[SIN] Impeding penalty during the main qualifying

[SIN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[SIN] Russel finishes the main race in top 6

[SIN] Both Racing Bulls score points in the main race

[SIN] Bearman scores points in the main race

[SIN] Sainz scores points in the main race

[SIN] Intermediate or wet tyres used in the main race

[COTA] Physical Safety Car during the race

[COTA] Red flag during qualifying

[COTA] Antonelli secures WDC

[COTA] A McLaren driver on the podium

[COTA] Max Verstappen wins the race

[COTA] A Ferrari qualifies P1 or P2

[COTA] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[COTA] A Haas reaches Q3

[COTA] Race winner has 2 or more tire changes

[COTA] Haas score at least 1 point

[COTA] An Audi finishes the race in top 10

[COTA] Hadjar on the podium

[COTA] Both Racing Bulls score points

[COTA] 4 or more DNF

[MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MEX] Both Ferraris on the podium

[MEX] Piastri finishes outside the top 10

[MEX] An Audi scores points

Other

JD Vance

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Pete Buttigieg

Ron DeSantis

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Nikki Haley

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump Jr.

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

None

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Elizabeth Warren

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Michelle Obama

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Nicole Shanahan

Tulsi Gabbard

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Jamie Dimon

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Glenn Youngkin

Tim Walz

John Fetterman

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

JD Vance (Vice President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Other

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

YES

NO

JetBlue

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Frontier

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio

Jon Ossoff

Pete Buttigieg

Roy Cooper

Gretchen Whitmer

Andy Beshear

Raphael Warnock

James Talarico

Wes Moore

Josh Shapiro

Elissa Slotkin

Donald Trump Jr.

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Scott Bessent - Secretary of the Treasury

Todd Blanche - Attorney General

Doug Burgum - Secretary of the Interior

Jay Clayton - Director of National Intelligence

Doug Collins - Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sean Duffy - Secretary of Transportation

Jamieson Greer - United States Trade Representative

Pete Hegseth - Secretary of War

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services

Kelly Loeffler - Administrator of the Small Business Administration

Howard Lutnick - Secretary of Commerce

Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education

Markwayne Mullin - Secretary of Homeland Security

John Ratcliffe - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

Brooke Rollins - Secretary of Agriculture

Marco Rubio - Secretary of State

Keith Sonderling - Secretary of Labor

Scott Turner - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

Russ Vought - Director of the Office of Management and Budget

Chris Wright - Secretary of Energy