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Top stories

Apple Adds Six Reflection Variants in iOS 26 Beta 6

Apple Adds Six Reflection Variants in iOS 26 Beta 6

Authors

4

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Pop

Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

Aug 12, 5:49 PMDec 31, 3:19 PM

10.32%chance

3312325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2948

339

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

25.81%chance

64148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

590

[Metaculus] Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

Apr 20, 10:26 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

2.5%chance

143917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

43

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

14.49%chance

131723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

412

If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2958

Will pop-up shops become the dominant hub of offline commerce by 2026?

Jan 28, 4:27 AMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

7.41%chance

11910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

877

CyberTrucks popping up in various countries by mid 2025 - where will there be sightings

Apr 5, 6:36 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

9799

OptionProbability

Russia

England

Europe

China mainland (not HK)

Japan

Ukraine

HK

Taiwan

New Zealand

Saudi Arabia

Ireland

Italy

Australia

Iceland

France

Africa

Colombia

100

100

100

95

73

69

66

66

59

58

50

50

50

50

50

50

48

Will Manifold ever release a major front end design update with an accompanying “what’s new” summary pop up?

Mar 7, 2:32 AMMar 14, 3:59 AM

84.4%chance

13322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

362

107

If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239

Will Jell-o Pudding Pops be revived and sold again at some point before EOY 2029?

Dec 8, 7:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.71%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Will Sigil Wen join a k-pop band by 2045?

Sep 24, 7:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 11, 2025
Aug 11, 2025
Software
Tech
Apple Adds Six Reflection Variants in iOS 26 Beta 6
Authors
4
4 days ago

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