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Top stories

Apple Set to Ship AirPods Pro 3 With Heart-Rate Sensor in September

Apple Set to Ship AirPods Pro 3 With Heart-Rate Sensor in September

Authors

11

16 hours ago

Prediction markets for Power On

Will Australia remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ?

Feb 22, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

9.02%chance

335743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2643

621

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Feb 14, 7:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.17%chance

484486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

816

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

73.18%chance

413662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

828

Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?

Nov 3, 12:54 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

58.47%chance

182150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

969

Will Italy remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ?

Feb 22, 1:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30%chance

391815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

804

Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?

Mar 6, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.08%chance

251348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

900

Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026?

May 5, 3:32 AMMay 7, 12:00 AM

27.64%chance

13341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Will NASA's Dragonfly rotorcraft make at least one powered flight on Titan?

Sep 17, 2:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.72%chance

10278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

955

War-Powers Notice on Iran Before 31 Dec 2025? (“Declaration of War”)

Jun 18, 2:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22.15%chance

2275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Conditional on CCP losing power, will China's GDP-PPP per capita catch up with EU by 2050?

May 9, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.12%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

191

What will be the speed record for solar powered aircraft on Earth in 2100?

Aug 3, 11:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

185

OptionProbability

151-200m/s

200+ m/s

101-150m/s

51-100m/s

0-50m/s

31

28

23

13

5

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Oct 13, 7:03 PMOct 12, 3:59 AM

64.73%chance

572

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

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