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Prediction markets for Predator
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?
Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18%chance
18944
OptionVotes
1432
869
If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?
Oct 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
38.35%chance
21889
OptionVotes
1268
789
Malcolm Collins or Simone Collins convicted of felony before 2035
Dec 29, 6:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
26.05%chance
5685
OptionVotes
1685
593
By 2030, will any Democratic administration succeed in jailing their opponents?
Nov 8, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
39.5%chance
3458
OptionVotes
1238
808
Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?
Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM
63.2%chance
13363
OptionVotes
989
989
OptionVotes
370
93
Will my African Grey Parrot be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Oct 4, 4:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
85.06%chance
8168
OptionVotes
330
120
Will running "prey substitute" robots, which carry meat substitutes for feeding wild predators, exist by 2050?
May 25, 6:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
24.21%chance
7155
OptionVotes
228
168
Which of these characters will be playable in Dead by Daylight before 2029?
Jul 14, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
391
OptionProbability
48
48
48
45
45
41
Will Predator be added to Dead by Daylight by the end of 2026?
May 25, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
39.64%chance
327
OptionVotes
123
81
Will there be evidence by 2030 that human selection on farmed mushrooms alters our gut microbiome?
May 11, 9:26 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
36.27%chance
321
OptionVotes
108
76