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Prediction markets for Private Processing
OptionVotes
1106
905
OptionVotes
4930
345
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19%chance
454728
OptionVotes
987
809
Will any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?
Aug 25, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
4.78%chance
83471
OptionVotes
4461
224
Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?
Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM
10.22%chance
22109
OptionVotes
2964
337
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
39.72%chance
20807
OptionVotes
1328
683
OptionVotes
1233
811
Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?
Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5331
OptionProbability
55
53
51
50
28
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.12%chance
4157
OptionVotes
1091
1011
Will Serra Verde MREC production for the 6 months ending March 2027 exceed 500 t?
Mar 30, 9:16 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM
77.29%chance
2135
OptionVotes
184
54
Will Serra Verde MREC production for the 6 months ending March 2027 exceed 1500 t?
Mar 30, 9:15 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM
76.78%chance
2105
OptionVotes
182
55
Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?
May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.83%chance
480
OptionVotes
118
85