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Prediction markets for Psyche
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
58
44
44
31
31
23
16
16
15
13
11
8
8
7
6
5
2
2
0
0
0
In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?
Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.1%chance
8512884
OptionVotes
1377
1032
Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)
Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60%chance
438642
OptionVotes
1224
780
Which happens first? Starliner-2, Psyche arrival, Artemis III, or New Glenn 15?
Aug 10, 2:15 PMSep 1, 5:59 AM
163726
OptionProbability
78
17
3
1
1
Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life
Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.26%chance
222440
OptionVotes
1483
783
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
63
52
50
48
48
48
46
43
41
38
37
37
37
32
31
31
20
15
15
14
10
10
9
Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?
Oct 17, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
53.99%chance
221567
OptionVotes
1241
494
OptionVotes
1051
952
OptionVotes
420
110
OptionProbability
57
15
12
10
6
OptionProbability
32
32
21
15
Will "Machinic Psychopharmacology: Do LLMs Self-Med..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jun 11, 7:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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