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Psyche News

    Prediction markets for Psyche

    Luigi Mangione Pre-Trial Prop Bets (Add Answers)

    Dec 10, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    8519627

    OptionProbability

    Donald Trump talks about the case

    Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

    Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

    Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

    Mangione extradited to NY in 2024

    Luigi Mangione pleads "not guilty" when first arraigned on the New York indictment against him

    A public figure calls for the death penalty

    Prosecutors seek the death penalty

    Luigi gets a marriage proposal

    Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

    Defense requests change in venue

    Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

    Polling from established firm shows more people have a positive than negative view of Mangione

    Major media outlet releases exclusive interview with Mangione family

    Any sanctions for prosecutor

    Defense seeks competence evaluation

    “JNOV” (or its expansion) appears in court transcripts or mainstream news coverage of the trial

    We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

    Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

    Mangione attempts suicide

    Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

    Another CEO of a publicly traded company is murdered

    Mangione is ever found incompetent to stand trial

    Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

    Suspect makes a confession

    Mangione assaulted while in custody

    Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

    Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

    Mangione represents himself in all hearings

    Mangione takes a plea deal before trial (Duplicate)

    The grand jury does not return an indictment the first time the cases presented to them

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    94

    58

    54

    49

    42

    37

    37

    31

    23

    22

    21

    17

    17

    15

    14

    11

    6

    6

    3

    2

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    997

    978

    OptionProbability

    Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

    Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

    Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

    A public figure calls for the death penalty

    Government seeks the death penalty

    Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

    Defense files motion to suppress evidence

    Gag order imposed on case participants

    Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

    Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment

    Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

    Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

    Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

    Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

    Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

    Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

    Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

    Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

    We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

    Defense requests change in venue

    Mangione assaulted while in custody

    Court grants competency evaluation

    Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

    Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

    Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

    Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

    Mangione attempts suicide

    Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

    Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

    Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

    Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    78

    53

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    48

    45

    45

    31

    31

    31

    27

    25

    22

    20

    20

    20

    18

    14

    11

    OptionProbability

    Artemis III launch

    New Glenn flight 15 launch

    Starliner-2 launch

    Psyche arrives at Psyche-16

    None of the above

    49

    33

    13

    3

    1

    OptionProbability

    Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

    Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

    Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

    A public figure calls for the death penalty

    Prosecution seeks additional charges other than murder

    Defense files motion to suppress evidence

    Defense requests change in venue

    Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

    Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

    Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

    Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

    Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

    Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

    Court grants competency evaluation

    Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

    Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

    Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

    Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

    Gag order imposed on case participants

    We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

    Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

    Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

    Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

    Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

    Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

    Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point

    Mangione attempts suicide

    Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

    Mangione assaulted while in custody

    Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    69

    63

    52

    48

    48

    48

    46

    43

    43

    42

    41

    37

    37

    37

    32

    31

    31

    20

    17

    17

    17

    14

    10

    10

    8

    Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

    Oct 17, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    43.7%chance
    181006

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1378

    363

    Will the Psyche orbiter reach Psyche and be functional?

    Sep 9, 2:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    90.76%chance
    8352

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    420

    110

    What will be my primary field in 5 years?

    Nov 18, 3:34 AMNov 25, 4:59 AM
    373

    OptionProbability

    AI

    Quantitative psychology

    Software engineering

    Other

    Statistics (other than quant psych)

    56

    16

    12

    11

    6

    What best explains 16 Psyche's formation?

    Sep 23, 1:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    144

    OptionProbability

    Gravitational accretion

    Ferrovolcanism

    Other

    Remnant core

    32

    32

    21

    15

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