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Prediction markets for Reflected
Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?
Feb 23, 5:59 PMJan 1, 5:57 PM
48.34%chance
12621
OptionVotes
214
124
Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?
Feb 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
89.44%chance
15556
OptionVotes
1086
956
OptionVotes
210
41
Self-Reflection: Do I Act Immaturely In the Comments? [Permanent]
Apr 12, 2:46 AMApr 12, 4:59 AM
11361
OptionProbability
244
152
Will Reflect Orbital send two satellites into space by 2030?
May 4, 6:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
68.59%chance
9230
OptionVotes
148
68
What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?
Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
10223
OptionProbability
42
25
15
11
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Reflect Orbital send 60 satellites into space by 2030?
May 4, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12%chance
7209
OptionVotes
271
37
OptionProbability
200
180
If the long reflection begins, will it end within 2x its advertised duration?
Nov 4, 12:06 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM
64.72%chance
7117
OptionVotes
132
94
Will "EIS XIII: Reflections on Anthropic’s SAE Rese..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 22, 10:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.51%chance
290
OptionVotes
1028
846
Will "OpenAI #10: Reflections" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 7, 9:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
29.11%chance
236
OptionVotes
114
45
Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?
Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
47.62%chance
225
OptionVotes
146
135
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