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TT Games Reveals Lego Batman: Legacy of the Dark Knight for 2026
Authors
17
7 months ago
Prediction markets for Robin
OptionProbability
1705
637
Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM
78.44%chance
245740
OptionVotes
1907
524
Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
95.55%chance
484763
OptionVotes
3780
1858
OptionVotes
2249
445
OptionVotes
2933
341
OptionVotes
1938
516
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.32%chance
343263
OptionVotes
1102
779
Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?
Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM
40%chance
241197
OptionVotes
1068
947
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?
Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
78%chance
25652
OptionVotes
998
932
Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?
May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.33%chance
5363
OptionVotes
1233
811
What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)
Aug 11, 1:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
6269
OptionProbability
95
92
89
86
67
5
3
Assuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?
Jan 4, 7:43 PMMar 19, 11:59 PM
12213
OptionProbability
47
10
8
7
6
5
5
5
5
4