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Rotten Tomatoes News

    Prediction markets for Rotten Tomatoes

    OptionProbability

    Ron Weasley is a redhead

    Snape is black

    Harry Potter is white

    At least one named character from the book has their race changed

    An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

    Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

    Fred and George are twins irl

    Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

    McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

    Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

    A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

    A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

    Premieres in 2026

    The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

    Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

    Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

    Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

    Malfoy has white blonde hair

    Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

    There’s a scene set before Harry is born

    Peeves is a reoccurring character

    JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

    Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

    It's woke

    A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

    mandrake root on screen

    Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

    80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

    An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

    Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

    A house elf is shown on screen

    At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

    Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

    The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

    Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

    Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

    Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

    The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

    Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

    The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

    Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

    An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

    VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

    Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

    Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

    "Voldemort" has a silent "t"

    Dobby makes an appearance

    90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

    At least one of the actors is transgender

    It ends on a cliff hanger

    Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

    Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

    Hermione is white

    Hermione is Indian

    Features an explicitly transgender character

    We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

    JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

    Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

    Premieres in 2027

    actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting

    Awkwafina is cast in the show

    Hermione is black

    Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

    There will be seven CGI dwarves

    Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

    Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

    Keir Starmer is in it

    set in 2025

    set in the 2020s

    Adolf Hitler is mentioned

    Yudkowsky makes an appearance

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

    We get AGI before it premieres

    Voldemort is a woman

    Hagrid is black

    Fred and George have the same actor

    HPMOR is referenced

    Gandalf is black

    One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

    Zendaya is cast in the show

    99

    99

    98

    97

    96

    95

    95

    95

    94

    94

    94

    94

    93

    91

    90

    90

    90

    90

    87

    84

    83

    81

    80

    78

    73

    68

    67

    66

    65

    65

    63

    63

    59

    57

    52

    42

    42

    41

    38

    33

    32

    30

    30

    29

    28

    28

    27

    26

    25

    25

    25

    25

    24

    23

    22

    20

    18

    17

    16

    14

    14

    13

    13

    12

    12

    10

    10

    8

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1110

    882

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    689

    52

    Firefly Reboot Ratings

    Mar 16, 2:30 AMJan 1, 3:12 AM
    7501

    OptionProbability

    Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer 80%+

    Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter 80%+

    Tomatometer and Popcornmeter have 20%+ spread

    IMDB > Tomatometer

    IMDB user score 8.0+

    45

    44

    43

    31

    25

    OptionProbability

    Audiobook narration indistinguishable from human

    Solve all fresh Sudoku puzzles >99% of the time (LLMs only)

    Consistently win games of "Diplomacy" against experienced players online

    Improvise and perform professional-level stand-up comedy routines

    Write a script to a prompt that is made into a "Certified Fresh" movie on Rotten Tomatoes

    97

    91

    73

    40

    30

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1282

    780

    OptionProbability

    Yes, it will be Certified Fresh (75% or higher)

    No, but it will Non-Certified Fresh (60%-74%)

    No, it will be Rotten (Less than 60%)

    No live-action Legend of Zelda movie will release by market close

    38

    36

    23

    3

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    78

    63

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    111

    90

    Will the Death Stranding movie get over 74% on Rotten Tomatoes?

    Dec 15, 5:35 AMDec 22, 7:59 AM
    43.36%chance
    10218

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    265

    152

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    163

    61

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    209

    191

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