OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Santa is rigged
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Groundhog Day is rigged
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
John McAfee didn't kill himself
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
The CIA killed JFK
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Bush did 9/11
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Princess Diana was assassinated
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Human didnt evolve from apes
Exercise is bad for your health
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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1
1
1
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1
1
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1
1
1
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1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
13262
816
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Donald Trump remains President of USA
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Sudanese Civil War ends
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Any country leaves NATO
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
USA leaves NATO
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
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95
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75
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9
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1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
6663
150
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1742
848
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1468
681
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1857
886
OptionVotes
YES
NO
532
120
OptionVotes
YES
NO
294
194
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1381
922
OptionProbability
Air defence in eastern NATO territories to be strengthened as a priority
Russia is violating the borders of another NATO member state with aircraft, vehicles or troops.
NATO's response is verbal; there is no escalation involving weapons.
It is decided that air defence on NATO territory will also cover the western parts of Ukraine.
Attack on a single strategic target on Russian soil by any NATO member
Nato declares state of defence due to other following provocations or attacks (Art.5)
A country declares its withdrawal from NATO
66
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20
18
12
5
