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Prediction markets for Science and Technology
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
19.85%chance
796429524
OptionVotes
34977
14290
Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?
Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7.59%chance
2128996
OptionVotes
3186
589
Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)
Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
12.33%chance
2128231
OptionVotes
26661
3751
Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?
Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
39%chance
9112332
OptionVotes
1767
574
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
May 22, 10:17 AMMay 29, 9:59 PM
181931
OptionProbability
69
69
66
61
59
58
57
56
54
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
41
40
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.31%chance
22735
OptionVotes
1074
674
Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?
Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM
59.37%chance
15591
OptionVotes
1123
765
Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?
May 10, 2:17 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
51.13%chance
9451
OptionVotes
1428
1000
Will UCLA SETI announce the finding of an extraterrestrial, non-human technosignature before 2033?
Feb 25, 5:13 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM
15.22%chance
10372
OptionVotes
1121
955
Which science fiction technology or phenomenon will become reality in 2025?
Jan 10, 10:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
14367
OptionProbability
50
30
30
20
18
14
5
OptionVotes
3690
3340