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Top stories

Google Unveils ‘Web Guide’ AI Experiment to Cluster Search Results

Google Unveils ‘Web Guide’ AI Experiment to Cluster Search Results

Authors

6

9 days ago

Prediction markets for Search Labs

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Nov 30, 3:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.4%chance

11333437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

1396

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

Feb 22, 8:28 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

4.03%chance

326944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4176

679

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Dec 3, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47%chance

565250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

799

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3838

261

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

14816

OptionProbability

Saar Wilf

Alina Chan

Yuri Deigin

Zeynep Tufecki

Nate Silver

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Zvi Mowshowitz

Matt Yglesias

Scott Aaronson

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Kristian Andersen

Michael Worobey

Scott Alexander

74

72

66

61

60

50

50

50

50

45

38

37

34

31

31

24

Will scaling transformers lead to a 60% score on ARC-AGI-2?

Apr 25, 3:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.97%chance

16457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

67

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

5267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

27

Will it replicate? Genetic and Functional Drivers of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (Cell, 2017, by March 2026)

Nov 27, 11:26 AMMar 1, 11:00 AM

6209

OptionProbability

No replication attempt published

Failure to replicate

Retraction/Notice of concern

Controversial resolution

Replication

66

64

41

39

21

Will I be able to buy a lab-grown turkey by Thanksgiving 2029?

Nov 28, 2:20 AMNov 23, 6:59 AM

40%chance

10200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

187

[Carlini questions] AI system exists that has significant CBRN risk

Mar 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4148

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

87

85

83

75

57

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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