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Prediction markets for Search
A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.
Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
18.94%chance
505679
OptionVotes
1425
852
Will it be possible to search for text across ALL YouTube videos by 2026?
Mar 9, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.77%chance
175133
OptionVotes
1223
832
Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?
Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
90.07%chance
354180
OptionVotes
2467
686
Will "Binging" replace "Googling" as a term for online search by 2030?
Mar 28, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.53%chance
533627
OptionVotes
3150
827
Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?
Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
34.11%chance
493399
OptionVotes
1390
1219
Will keyboards be used to make most Google searches in 2027?
Feb 3, 12:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
95.1%chance
433041
OptionVotes
2894
796
Bing's market share of search passes google's by 2030
Dec 26, 8:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.32%chance
351115
OptionVotes
1114
958
Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040?
Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.78%chance
24860
OptionVotes
1157
852
Google Trends: Will "bitcoin" search hit all-time high before 2030?
Feb 5, 9:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.35%chance
7819
OptionVotes
1268
789
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
40.89%chance
8472
OptionVotes
1202
832
Will "RL & search is a terrifying way to build AGI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 30, 4:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.21%chance
3272
OptionVotes
1244
965
OptionVotes
1187
843
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