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Prediction markets for Series 10
Is Polymarket more accurate than Manifold at p<0.05?
Apr 15, 9:42 AMSep 30, 9:39 AM
59.76%chance
14010234
OptionVotes
1219
821
What will be true of the first main series Generation 10 Pokémon game(s)?
Oct 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
203992
OptionProbability
98
95
92
90
81
70
69
69
62
55
55
54
48
45
41
35
34
30
30
28
25
24
24
24
20
15
15
10
6
5
1
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Feb 19, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM
38.73%chance
161824
OptionVotes
1157
581
OptionVotes
2015
500
Will 9 or More Series go to 7 Games Across the NBA, NHL, and MLB Playoffs in 2025?
Jan 24, 2:38 PMNov 10, 2:59 PM
50.07%chance
8667
OptionVotes
1001
999
Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
Jul 21, 12:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
33.27%chance
17561
OptionVotes
1101
682
Will a human player defeat the SSBM AI Phillip in 2025?
Nov 20, 2:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
62.37%chance
5320
OptionVotes
1287
777
OptionVotes
183
100
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.45%chance
365
OptionVotes
4047
3968
If the sixth installment of the Elder Scrolls series releases before 2040, will it receive a 10 by IGN?
Jan 30, 8:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
20.31%chance
250
OptionVotes
99
25
Will an official 100 Bullets series or movie be released by the end of 2028?
Jun 19, 1:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.05%chance
249
OptionVotes
149
67
OptionVotes
115
87
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