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Prediction markets for Shor
Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
Mar 7, 4:27 PMDec 31, 4:21 PM
46.06%chance
495288
OptionVotes
1082
924
Will the UK introduce rationing due to food shortages by 2030?
May 28, 4:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
17.27%chance
324727
OptionVotes
2188
457
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.74%chance
353788
OptionVotes
1270
787
OptionProbability
100
100
99
99
70
53
53
50
46
45
45
43
41
41
41
41
40
36
35
34
34
29
29
20
18
17
17
13
9
5
4
OptionProbability
38
21
10
6
5
5
4
4
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will there be a shortage of IT workers by the end of 2030?
Dec 24, 3:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33.92%chance
191602
OptionVotes
994
929
Will Germany have a shortage of natural Gas by the end of 2027?
Nov 8, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
17.95%chance
211397
OptionVotes
1040
964
OptionVotes
1329
892
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM
14.72%chance
11393
OptionVotes
363
158
What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?
Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
242
OptionProbability
66
11
11
11
OptionVotes
114
88
Will David Shor vote for at least one Republican by 2050?
Jul 22, 9:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.52%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
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