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Prediction markets for Single
Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035?
Jun 15, 7:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12.72%chance
2510433
OptionVotes
2619
382
Tennis player(s) to win the most Grand Slam tournaments (singles) in 2025?
Sep 2, 6:28 PMSep 30, 8:59 PM
289289
OptionProbability
71
11
6
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030?
Jul 4, 7:52 AMMay 1, 4:59 PM
157853
OptionProbability
97
85
25
11
4
4
3
3
2
Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?
Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
10.66%chance
215638
OptionVotes
2896
345
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?
Aug 7, 10:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
37%chance
442328
OptionVotes
1161
514
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?
Nov 9, 12:22 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM
33.14%chance
241656
OptionVotes
1420
704
Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?
Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM
70.13%chance
291047
OptionVotes
1107
930
How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀
Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11946
OptionProbability
34
25
9
6
5
5
5
5
4
4
Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?
Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
58.13%chance
10822
OptionVotes
1178
849
Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025
Feb 17, 12:31 AMDec 31, 1:00 AM
47%chance
7471
OptionVotes
1062
942
Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?
Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
43.07%chance
3153
OptionVotes
1150
870
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877