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Prediction markets for SIR
OptionProbability
41
34
16
15
13
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
11
10
10
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
214386
OptionProbability
100
100
100
50
50
37
34
34
25
24
23
22
21
20
20
20
19
16
15
15
15
14
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
0
In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
Aug 1, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
62337
OptionProbability
43
34
31
31
31
31
31
31
26
26
26
26
26
10
9
0
0
OptionProbability
99
98
98
66
59
50
50
41
34
34
31
28
24
19
15
15
11
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
Which prime ministers of Australia will Anthony Albanese overtake in terms of time in office?
May 6, 1:54 PMNov 3, 12:43 PM
71463
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
97
95
92
90
60
57
56
56
46
28
2
Will a super-injunction relating to Sir Keir Starmer be revealed in 2026?
Apr 29, 6:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.05%chance
11839
OptionVotes
670
51
DID Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? [PERMANENT MARKET/STOCK, DOES NOT RESOLVE]
Jun 10, 7:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
54.33%chance
10610
OptionVotes
109
92
OptionProbability
346
213
Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?
Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM
12.34%chance
5166
OptionVotes
266
38
OptionProbability
91
3
3
3
What will be the final net IRR for Siris Partners V? (X100)
Dec 6, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
63%chance
4104
OptionProbability
386
251
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