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Prediction markets for SIR
OptionProbability
41
34
16
15
13
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
11
10
10
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
213946
OptionProbability
100
100
66
59
43
36
34
33
27
26
26
25
24
23
22
22
21
20
18
18
17
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
0
Which prime ministers of Australia will Anthony Albanese overtake in terms of time in office?
May 6, 1:54 PMNov 3, 12:43 PM
71463
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
97
95
92
90
60
57
56
56
46
28
2
OptionProbability
98
98
97
66
59
50
50
41
34
34
31
28
24
19
15
15
11
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
Aug 1, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3959
OptionProbability
37
37
37
35
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
26
26
26
26
26
26
Will a super-injunction relating to Sir Keir Starmer be revealed in 2026?
Apr 29, 6:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.05%chance
11839
OptionVotes
670
51
OptionProbability
346
213
Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?
Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM
12.34%chance
5166
OptionVotes
266
38
OptionProbability
91
3
3
3
Will I get called "sir" more than "ma'am" over the phone in September?
Sep 2, 9:26 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM
14.36%chance
3113
OptionVotes
1042
691
What will be the final net IRR for Siris Partners V? (X100)
Dec 6, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
63%chance
4104
OptionProbability
386
251
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