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Prediction markets for Slack
Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
41.94%chance
172227
OptionVotes
1176
850
When will the waiting list for kidney transplants in the US be eliminated?
Oct 17, 8:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13400
OptionProbability
41
28
14
9
9
OptionVotes
128
78
Will there be a waiting list for kidney transplants in the US by end of 2030?
Oct 17, 8:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
90.06%chance
7227
OptionVotes
351
99
When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?
Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM
2130
OptionProbability
49
39
Will G7 countries eliminate plastic pollution by 2040?
Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
53.17%chance
5111
OptionVotes
108
64
Will bits in bio slack (bitsinbio.slack.com) finally upgrade so people can have access to more than 90 days, by EOY2027?
Apr 27, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56.32%chance
114
OptionVotes
114
88
Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029
Mar 12, 4:12 AMMar 20, 3:59 AM
54.75%chance
110
OptionVotes
130
111
Will Alex Radu find a sponsor for Disposition (or any other YSWS) by the end of November 2026?
Sep 23, 1:10 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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