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Snowflake News

    Prediction markets for Snowflake

    OptionProbability

    Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

    Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

    Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

    Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

    Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

    Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

    Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

    Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

    Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

    Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

    Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

    Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

    Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

    Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

    Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

    Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

    Fold a paper airplane

    Make correct Truchet tiles

    Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

    1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

    Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

    Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

    Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

    teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

    Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

    Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

    Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

    Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

    Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

    Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

    Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

    independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

    Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

    Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

    Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

    Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

    voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

    Kill everyone - Liron

    Faster than light travel

    100

    100

    88

    88

    85

    81

    79

    78

    76

    74

    73

    71

    68

    66

    64

    61

    57

    56

    50

    46

    45

    37

    36

    35

    32

    30

    29

    22

    18

    15

    9

    9

    9

    7

    6

    5

    5

    4

    1

    OptionProbability

    OpenAI

    Palantir Technologies

    Other/None

    NVIDIA

    Anthropic

    Snowflake

    Databricks

    Adobe

    Alphabet

    25

    20

    19

    10

    7

    7

    7

    7

    4

    Is Elon Musk a snowflake?

    Mar 19, 7:07 PM
    530

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