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Snowflake News

    Prediction markets for Snowflake

    OptionProbability

    Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

    Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

    Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

    Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

    Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

    Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

    Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

    Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

    Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

    Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

    Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

    Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

    Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

    Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

    Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

    Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

    Fold a paper airplane

    Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

    Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

    Make correct Truchet tiles

    teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

    1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

    Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

    Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

    Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

    Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

    Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

    Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

    Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

    Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

    Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

    independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

    Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

    Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

    Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

    Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

    Kill everyone - Liron

    voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

    Faster than light travel

    100

    100

    88

    88

    85

    82

    79

    78

    76

    74

    73

    72

    66

    64

    61

    61

    55

    45

    40

    39

    35

    35

    32

    30

    30

    29

    25

    22

    17

    14

    9

    9

    9

    7

    6

    5

    4

    2

    1

    OptionProbability

    OpenAI

    Other/None

    Palantir Technologies

    NVIDIA

    Anthropic

    Databricks

    Adobe

    Snowflake

    Alphabet

    20

    18

    15

    9

    7

    7

    7

    6

    3

    Is Elon Musk a snowflake?

    Mar 19, 7:07 PM
    530

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