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Top stories

Wynn Las Vegas Bans Justin Bieber Impersonator After XS Nightclub Ruse

Wynn Las Vegas Bans Justin Bieber Impersonator After XS Nightclub Ruse

Authors

12

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Sorry

Will WW3 happen before GTA6?

Jul 2, 10:02 AMApr 30, 10:00 PM

8.49%chance

387946077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31517

4338

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1930517

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

63

36

1

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

Apr 21, 6:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.55%chance

15610933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2915

1589

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.46%chance

507971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5317

494

Will Trump exact punishment on South Park?

Jul 28, 3:54 PMDec 31, 4:46 PM

30.45%chance

484279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

662

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

44.86%chance

372816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

846

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

351615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

662

What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8794

OptionProbability

Other

grind

aesop

duper

simp

rw_search

sorry

44

40

7

4

2

2

2

Will "Sorry for the downtime, looks like we got DDosd" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 3, 8:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

2.44%chance

2400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

500

77

Will "The Sorry State of AI X-Risk Advocacy, and Th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 23, 3:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.29%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

97

Will "On saying "Thank you" instead of "I'm Sorry"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:13 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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