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6 months ago

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Nov 6, 5:48 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

1528972358

OptionProbability

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Approval < 35%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

trump gets hospitalized

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Fair elections in 2028

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

USA experiences a recession.

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump visits Africa

Congress overrides a presidential veto

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

A major war in Asia occurs

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Joe Biden dies

Trump says a racial slur

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump and Obama shake hands

Tesla

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

New national park created

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Repeal obamacare

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

War is declared against another nation

10% fewer government agencies

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump gets covid (again)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Approval < 25%

American Manned Lunar Landing

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump gets shot

54 or more Republican senate seats

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Record level unemployment

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Another pandemic

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump runs for a third term

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump is seen shirtless

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Starship lands on Mars

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Constitutional Amendment

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

100

🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (19 DONE)

Feb 28, 6:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9321857

OptionProbability

Left 4 Dead 3

Portal 3

Team Fortress 3

Far Cry 8

Counter Strike 3

Star Craft 3

Grand Theft Auto 7

Under Night In-Birth 3

Crysis 4

Monaco 3

Star Citizen

Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6

Mega Man 12

Saints Row (6th main game)

Red Dead Redemption 3

Banjo Kazooie 3

Tekken 9

Age of Empires 5

Fallout 5

Bloody Roar 5

Fable 4

Physint (Kojima stealth game)

Armored Core 7

Soul Calibur 7

Bayonetta 4

Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15

Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)

Final Fantasy 18

Earth Defense Force 7

Radio the Universe

Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)

Crackdown 4

Dead Island 3

Dead Space 4

Dead or Alive 7

Pikmin 5

Mass Effect 5

Wolf Among Us 2

BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)

Dynasty Origins 12

Devil May Cry 6

Riot's MMORPG

ARK Survival Evolved 2

Mario Kart 10

Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)

Marathon

Diablo 5

Dynasty Warriors 11 (after origins)

rivals of aether 3

Kingdom Hearts 4

Far Cry 7

Civilization 8

Hearts of Iron 5

Final Fantasy 17

Street Fighter 7

Dragon Quest 12

Darksiders 4

Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)

Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)

A Plague Tale 3

Need for Speed (26th main game)

Hytale

Tropico 7

Half Life 3

Dynasty Warriors Origins

Gran Turismo 8

Guilty Gear (after Strive)

The Sims 5

Monaco 2

Control 2

King of Fighters 16

Splatoon 4

Command and Conquer 5

ARMA 4

Haunted Chocolatier

Persona 6

Witcher 4 Polaris

Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves

Elder Scrolls 6

Virtua Fighter 6

Next Gears of War (E Day)

Grand Theft Auto 6

deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)

Resident Evil 9

S&box (Sandbox)

Europa Universalis 5

Outer Worlds 2

Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2

Little Nightmares 3

2XKO

Silent Hill f (the next main game)

Skate 4

Silksong (Hollow Knight)

Killing Floor 3

Death Stranding 2

Mario Kart 9

Monster Hunter Wilds

Civilization 7

Slitterhead

Rivals of Aether 2

Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)

Frostpunk 2

Prince of Persia after Lost Crown

Hades 2

Which of these series will EVER have games on Nintendo Switch 2?

Dec 19, 6:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5820986

OptionProbability

Animal Crossing

The Legend of Zelda

Pokémon

Donkey Kong Country

Red Dead Redemption

Super Mario

Cyberpunk (including Orion, etc)

Plants vs. Zombies

Splatoon

Rhythm Heaven

Super Smash Bros.

Katamari (塊魂)

Dragon Quest

WarioWare

Pikmin

Grand Theft Auto

The Elder Scrolls

Tekken

Call of Duty

Luigi's Mansion

F-Zero

Mario Golf

virtua fighter

Halo

Pokémon Mystery Dungeon

Shantae

Fable

Tales

Microsoft Flight Simulator

Star Fox

Pokémon Ranger

Tomodachi Life/Tomodachi Collection

Fallout

Pokémon Snap

Itadaki Street (Fortune Street/Boom Street)

Arms

Bayonetta

Dark Souls

Nintendogs

Itadaki Street (Fortune Street/Boom Street), in North America

Punch-Out!!

Kid Icarus

Denpa Men

Homestuck/Hiveswap

The Sims (excluding MySims)

Golden Sun

Mother/EarthBound

Labo

Pokémon Pinball

100

What games will I enjoy playing with my partner?

Oct 17, 12:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7416482

OptionProbability

Magic: The Gathering

Cult of the Lamb

Death's Door

Shift Happens

Baba is You

Understand

The Witness

Hollow Knight

It Takes Two

Unravel Two

Portal 2

Braid

Portal

Superliminal

The Talos Principle

The Talos Principle 2

Antichamber

Perspective

Portal Reloaded

Portal Stories: Mel

Thinking with Time Machine

Cell Machine

Bokura

Hades

Hades 2

Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

Superhot

Slay the Princess

Mind over Magnet

Escape Academy

Pico Park 2

Viewfinder

Silksong

Baba Is You XTREME

blue prince

The Room

Pico Park

Wargroove

Patrick's Parabox

Q.U.B.E. 2

Q.U.B.E.

The Stanley Parable

Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

Stardew Valley

Splendor (tabletop game)

We Were Here Too

Advance Wars

Mini Motorways

Human: Fall Flat

Outer Wilds

Don't Starve

Doki Doki Literature Club!

We Were Here

Castle Crashers

Spiritfarer

scarlet hollow

Terraria

Chants of Sennaar

Patch Quest

Minecraft

999

Detroit: Become Human

Wild Woods

Manifold Garden

We Were Here Forever

Goragoa

Subnauticta

We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

Tokimeki Memorial

Baldur's Gate 3

Beyond: Two Souls

Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc

What Remains of Edith Finch

Clandestine

Nobody Saves the World

Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

Glider (1988)

Split Fiction

Rayman Legends

LittleBigPlanet 3

Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

Bean and nothingness

Space Station 13

Nomifactory

Monifactory

Rebirth of the Night

Induction

Akane

Zero Time Dilemma

Morrowind

going under: internships are heck

Animal Well

English Country Tune

Satisfactory

Expedition 33

Quantum Conundrum

Stoneshard

Final Fantasy Tactics (original)

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2

Octopath Travel

Project Triangle Strategy

Sokosoko

Physics-Breaking Boxes

Inbox Unbox

Linelith

Boxing Up Bamboo

Frog Wizard Gem Quest

The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room

Clockwork Cat

salt and sactuary

From Muddled to Clean

Path to Nowhere

Arknights

Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten

Lorelei and the Laser Eyes

A Monster's Expedition

Lingo

Solas 128

Gentoo Rescue

Ugly

Toki Tori 2+

Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game

Isles of Sea and Sky

Chroma Zero

Paquerette

Riven

Baba Files Taxes

Baba Is Quiz

A Solitaire Mystery

IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME

Leaf's Odyssey

Submachine

LOK Digital

Leap Year

Recursed

Fever Meme

Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Moonlighter

Myst

We Were Here Together

Hyperrogue

Void Stranger

PEAK

Sackboy: A Big Adventure

Arc Raiders

Unstable Unicorns 🦄

Mario Party

Magicka

Exploding kittens

Yume Nikki

The House of DaVinci

Tunic

Moving Out

Timberborn

Trine 2

A Couple Of Cubes

Root (tabletop or digital version)

Children of Morta

Rainworld

Deadly Rooms of Death

Fez

CrossCode

Cocoon

Islands of Insight

Monopoly

USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)

SteamWorld Dig

Snakebird

Chess

Slay the Spire

Among Us

Stephen's Sausage Roll

Amazing Chicken Adventures

Wingspan

Can of Wormholes

Disco Elysium

Overcooked

Return of the Obra Dinn

Inscryption

Slice and Dice

Teardown

Astroneer

100

Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040?

May 9, 2:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.16%chance

393775

OptionVotes

YES

1990

502

Which MTG cards will be banned from standard before the next early rotation window?

Aug 14, 6:05 PMJun 30, 5:54 PM

61790

OptionProbability

Vivi Ornitier

Proft's Eidetic Memory

Screaming Nemesis

Badgermole Cub

Agatha's Soul Cauldron

Fear of Missing Out

Stock Up

Enduring Curiosity

Superior Spider-Man / Kavaero, Mind-Bitten

Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

100

🎮Which franchises / properties will have a crossover with Fortnite by the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 5, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161081

OptionProbability

Simpsons

Among Us

One Piece

Shovel Knight

Roblox

Five Nights at Freddys

Frozen (Disney)

Raid Shadow Legends

Hunger Games

Minecraft

American Dad

Pokemon

Yu Gi Oh

From Software (elden ring, dark souls, etc)

Undertale

Team Fortress / Half Life (Valve properties)

Magic: the Gathering

Doctor Who

Palworld

Dora the Explorer

Sesame Street

Life is Strange

ASDFMovie

Homestuck

Nintendo (non-pokemon)

100

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

YES

1051

739

Will the Soulakis stop being fat before Bitcoin hits 250k USD

May 1, 2:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.08%chance

2210

OptionVotes

YES

157

Will there be a sequel to the 2004 comedy film Soul Plane before Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 3, 2:21 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.3%chance

20163

OptionVotes

YES

1035

977

Which characters will be playable in Marvel Rivals OR Marvel Tōkon: Fighting Souls before 2028?

Jul 8, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

264

OptionProbability

Bullseye

The Wasp

Green Goblin

Doctor Octopus

Silver Surfer

Ant-Man

Mr. Negative

MODOK

Captain Britain

The Vulture

Will Doctor Octopus be playable in Marvel Tōkon: Fighting Souls at launch?

Jun 9, 5:13 PMDec 10, 6:12 PM

35%chance

439

OptionVotes

YES

136

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