Souls News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

New national park created

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Approval < 35%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US national bitcoin reserve created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

A new supreme court justice appointed

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Joe Biden dies

Dow rises above 65,000

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump says a racial slur

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Kennedy Center is repurposed

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Tesla

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

BTC falls below $38,000

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump runs 4 president (physically runs >4x the average height of US presidents in a continuous go)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Deep funding cuts to nih, cdc, hhs, fda all implemented and becomes law

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

McDonald's reopens in Russia

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US Invasion of any North/South American country

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

American Manned Lunar Landing

Approval < 25%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

War is declared against another nation

Kennedy Center is demolished

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump loses the fake tan

10% fewer government agencies

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump breaks a bone in his body

Trump dies

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down and cease to exist

Trump runs for a third term

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump pumps a plump rump (grabs and moves back and forth someone else's butt)

World war 3 occurs and global war is launched

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Repeal obamacare

Trump is assassinated

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

54 or more Republican senate seats

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

United States becomes totalitarian dictatorship

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Left 4 Dead 3

Portal 3

Team Fortress 3

Far Cry 8

Counter Strike 3

Star Craft 3

Grand Theft Auto 7

Crysis 4

Under Night In-Birth 3

Monaco 3

Star Citizen

Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6

Mega Man 12

Saints Row (6th main game)

Red Dead Redemption 3

Banjo Kazooie 3

Tekken 9

Age of Empires 5

Fallout 5

Bloody Roar 5

Physint (Kojima stealth game)

Mass Effect 5

Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)

Armored Core 7

Soul Calibur 7

Bayonetta 4

Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15

Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)

Final Fantasy 18

Earth Defense Force 7

Radio the Universe

Crackdown 4

Dead Island 3

Dead Space 4

Dead or Alive 7

Pikmin 5

Wolf Among Us 2

BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)

Dynasty Origins 12

Half Life 3

Devil May Cry 6

Riot's MMORPG

ARK Survival Evolved 2

Mario Kart 10

Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)

Diablo 5

The Sims 5

Dynasty Warriors 11 (after origins)

rivals of aether 3

Kingdom Hearts 4

Far Cry 7

Civilization 8

Hearts of Iron 5

Final Fantasy 17

Street Fighter 7

Dragon Quest 12

Darksiders 4

Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)

Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)

A Plague Tale 3

Need for Speed (26th main game)

Dynasty Warriors Origins

Gran Turismo 8

Guilty Gear (after Strive)

Monaco 2

Control 2

King of Fighters 16

Splatoon 4

Hytale

Command and Conquer 5

Elder Scrolls 6

ARMA 4

Haunted Chocolatier

Fable 4

Witcher 4 Polaris

Persona 6

Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves

Virtua Fighter 6

Tropico 7

Grand Theft Auto 6

deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)

Next Gears of War (E Day)

S&box (Sandbox)

Marathon

Resident Evil 9

Europa Universalis 5

Outer Worlds 2

Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2

Little Nightmares 3

2XKO

Silent Hill f (the next main game)

Skate 4

Silksong (Hollow Knight)

Killing Floor 3

Death Stranding 2

Mario Kart 9

Monster Hunter Wilds

Civilization 7

Slitterhead

Rivals of Aether 2

Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)

Frostpunk 2

Prince of Persia after Lost Crown

Magic: The Gathering

Cult of the Lamb

Death's Door

Shift Happens

Baba is You

Understand

The Witness

Hollow Knight

It Takes Two

Unravel Two

Portal 2

Braid

Portal

Superliminal

The Talos Principle

The Talos Principle 2

Antichamber

Perspective

Portal Reloaded

Portal Stories: Mel

Thinking with Time Machine

Cell Machine

Bokura

Hades

Hades 2

Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

Superhot

Slay the Princess

Mind over Magnet

Escape Academy

blue prince

Pico Park 2

Viewfinder

Silksong

Baba Is You XTREME

Papers Please

The Room

Pico Park

Wargroove

Patrick's Parabox

Q.U.B.E. 2

Q.U.B.E.

Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

We Were Here Too

Ultimate Chicken Horse

Papers, Please

Mini Motorways

Minecraft

The Stanley Parable

We Were Here

Terraria

Chants of Sennaar

Outer Wilds

Patch Quest

Crawl

Rayman Legends

Tricky Towers

Arknights

Mindustry

Unrailed!

Don't Starve

Satisfactory

Overcooked! 2

Manifold Garden

We Were Here Forever

Coup (card game)

Goragoa

scarlet hollow

Subnauticta

We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

Noita

Clandestine

Nobody Saves the World

Mario Party

Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

Split Fiction

Rayman Legends

LittleBigPlanet 3

Trine 2

Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

Bean and nothingness

Nomifactory

Monifactory

Rebirth of the Night

Induction

Akane

Morrowind

going under: internships are heck

Animal Well

English Country Tune

English Country Tune

Quantum Conundrum

Project Triangle Strategy

Sokosoko

Physics-Breaking Boxes

Inbox Unbox

Linelith

Boxing Up Bamboo

Frog Wizard Gem Quest

The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room

Clockwork Cat

salt and sactuary

From Muddled to Clean

Path to Nowhere

Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten

Lorelei and the Laser Eyes

A Monster's Expedition

Solas 128

Gentoo Rescue

Ugly

Toki Tori 2+

Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game

Isles of Sea and Sky

Chroma Zero

Paquerette

Riven

Baba Files Taxes

Baba Is Quiz

A Solitaire Mystery

IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME

Leaf's Odyssey

Submachine

LOK Digital

Leap Year

Recursed

Fever Meme

Passant: A Chess Roguelike

tetr.io (quickplay duos)

Taiji

Corekeeper

Emberknights

Sworn

Jumpspace

Mountain Peak

A Way Out

The Past Within

How 2 Escape

All You Need is Help

Melbits World

Parallel Experiment

Superbugs: Awaken

Tick Tock: A Tale for Two

Tristoy

Unboxing the Cryptic Killer

Tetris Effect

Pushmo

World of Goo

The Swapper

The Séance of Blake Manor

Fugitive (board/card game)

Codenames Duet (card game)

Fugitive (board/card game)

Nine Sols

Sineus Arena

Magicka 2

Cuphead

Risk of Rain 2

Ender Lilies: Quietus of the Knights

Botany Manor

Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown

Ori and the Will of the Wisps

The Looker

The Pedestrian

The Entropy Centre

Mirklurk

Pixel IP Please

Exploding kittens

Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Moonlighter

Baldur's Gate 3

Myst

We Were Here Together

Hyperrogue

Void Stranger

PEAK

Sackboy: A Big Adventure

Arc Raiders

Pandemic (boardgame)

Unstable Unicorns 🦄

Tunic

Moving Out

Moving Out

Magicka

Space Station 13

Expedition 33

Stoneshard

Final Fantasy Tactics (original)

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2

Octopath Travel

Gloomhaven

Escape Simulator

Monopoly

Yume Nikki

Islands of Insight

Factorio

The House of DaVinci

Lingo

Timberborn

ARC-AGI-3

A Couple Of Cubes

Root (tabletop or digital version)

Children of Morta

Rainworld

Deadly Rooms of Death

Fez

CrossCode

Cocoon

Into the Breach

SteamWorld Dig

Snakebird

Chess

Slay the Spire

Among Us

Beyond: Two Souls

Stephen's Sausage Roll

Amazing Chicken Adventures

Spiritfarer

Wingspan

Stardew Valley

Can of Wormholes

Disco Elysium

Splendor (tabletop game)

Overcooked

Return of the Obra Dinn

Inscryption

Slice and Dice

Glider (1988)

Teardown

Human: Fall Flat

Castle Crashers

Tokimeki Memorial

999

Detroit: Become Human

Zero Time Dilemma

Astroneer

Wild Woods

What Remains of Edith Finch

Advance Wars

Doki Doki Literature Club!

Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc

YES

It is possible to craft the TwistedSwd

An "aborted Weird Route" has significant changes (not just a few lines of dialogue)

A Weird Route save file can't load at all (not even a blank screen)

Noelle enters Castle Town

A Dark Fountain is opened in Holiday Manor

The official soundtrack has 40+ songs

New Soul Mode in a Boss Fight (Blue or Aqua)

Susie learns that Kris has been working with the Knight

Susie learns that Kris and the SOUL are two different entities

Noelle opens a Dark Fountain

Dark Fountains are opened in multiple distinct locations

The Roaring happens

Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight

Rudy dies

FRIEND becomes plot-relevant

The vessel appears or is mentioned

A battle against Seam

You play as the soul possessing someone who is not Kris

Chapter starts in a Dark World

Berdly appears in a Dark World

Susie and Kris enter the bunker

Asriel appears

A Dark Fountain is re-opened in a previous location (e.g. the computer lab, Kris's house, etc.)

Papyrus appears

The entire town becomes a Dark World

Anyone other than Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight

W.D. Gaster appears

A Dark Fountain is opened in the hospital

A battle against FRIEND

Light world combat

The eggs hatch

Vivi Ornitier

Proft's Eidetic Memory

Screaming Nemesis

Badgermole Cub

Agatha's Soul Cauldron

Fear of Missing Out

Stock Up

Enduring Curiosity

Superior Spider-Man / Kavaero, Mind-Bitten

American Dad

Simpsons

Among Us

One Piece

Five Nights at Freddys

Shovel Knight

Roblox

Frozen (Disney)

Hunger Games

Minecraft

Pokemon

Yu Gi Oh

From Software (elden ring, dark souls, etc)

Undertale

Team Fortress / Half Life (Valve properties)

Magic: the Gathering

Doctor Who

Raid Shadow Legends

Palworld

Life is Strange

Dora the Explorer

Sesame Street

Homestuck

Nintendo (non-pokemon)

Green Goblin

Silver Surfer

Bullseye

Mr. Negative

MODOK

Doctor Octopus

Ant-Man

The Wasp

The Vulture

NO

YES

New IP (completely original title, not set in any existing FromSoftware universe)

Dark Souls

Armored Core

Bloodborne

Sekiro

Other

Elden Ring

Duskbloods

NO