South Park News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

New national park created

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Approval < 35%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US national bitcoin reserve created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

A new supreme court justice appointed

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Joe Biden dies

Dow rises above 65,000

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump says a racial slur

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Kennedy Center is repurposed

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Tesla

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

BTC falls below $38,000

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump runs 4 president (physically runs >4x the average height of US presidents in a continuous go)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Deep funding cuts to nih, cdc, hhs, fda all implemented and becomes law

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

McDonald's reopens in Russia

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US Invasion of any North/South American country

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

American Manned Lunar Landing

Approval < 25%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

War is declared against another nation

Kennedy Center is demolished

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump loses the fake tan

10% fewer government agencies

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump breaks a bone in his body

Trump dies

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down and cease to exist

Trump runs for a third term

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump pumps a plump rump (grabs and moves back and forth someone else's butt)

World war 3 occurs and global war is launched

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Repeal obamacare

Trump is assassinated

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

54 or more Republican senate seats

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

United States becomes totalitarian dictatorship

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

President with Green Eyes elected

Crewed mission to Phobos

USA adds 52nd state

Room temperature superconductor discovered

UK has a queen again

24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

Olympics hosted in Japan again

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

RSA-2048 cracked

Harlem Globetrotters lose again

2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

The Beatles music enters the public domain

Batman enters the public domain

Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

Norway Bans Whaling

human dies on the moon

African company or country lands on moon

Japan Bans Whaling

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

Pokemon Card sells for $10M

First hispanic USA president

Olympics hosted in Africa

Longest suspension bridge record broken

Team Fortress 3 releases

Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

Pickleball in the Olympics

End support date for Windows 12

Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO (after 2026)

19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

USA Adds 51st state

ChatGPT 10 releases

Superman enters the public domain

Human walks on mars

The version after Windows 12 releases

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

Centennial Lightbulb burns out

Underwater hold breath world record broken

Blood Meridian movie release

Destiny retires from regular streaming

First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

Bugs Bunny enters public domain

Windows 11 end support date

Peppa Pig ends

EU reaches 30 member states

Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

The first $10T market cap company

Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

India hosts the Olympics

1500 Pokemon Released

Civilization 8 releases

Star Citizen releases or company ceases

Family Guy ends

Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

First female USA president

South Park ends

Chicago ends on Broadway

Manifold reaches 20K MAU

Xi no longer in power in China

James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

Simpsons ends

Iceland Bans Whaling

Another MLB perfect game pitched

1300 Pokemon Released

Sagrada Familia Church completed

One piece manga ends

Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

Human walks on moon again

Trump Dies

Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

Half Life 3 releases

USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

Manifold reaches 40K MAU

Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

Skibidi Toilet ends

a third Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

ChatGPT 7 releases

a USA president impeached again

Putin no longer in power in Russia

Shrek 5 releases

Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

ChatGPT 6 releases

First Trillionaire (USD)

Human runs official marathon under 2h

Price of gold hits $5000/oz

The first $5T market cap company

USA discontinues or changes penny coin

Death Stranding 2 releases

First $100B revenue media franchise

New Pope after Francis

Civilization 7 releases

Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Taylor Swift has been married

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

True Detective Season 5 released

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Xi still leader of China

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

Putin still leader of Russia

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

1200 or more official pokemon

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

I'll be dead.

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Taylor Swift has been divorced

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

China has landed a human on the moon

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

YES

Kpop Demon Hunters

Demon Slayer

Lego brand/minifigures

Warcraft / World of Warcraft

Naruto

Simpsons

Halo

Family Guy

Minecraft

Bobs Burgers

South Park

Haribo / Other Candy Brand

Neon Genesis Evangelion

Legend of Zelda

Kellog Cereal / Food Mascots

Digimon

Star Wars

One Piece

YES

NO

YES

YES

NO

YES