Special Report News

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Interviews With Bret Baier on Fox News Special Report After Meeting President Trump at 6 p.m. ET August 18, 2025

9 months ago

Will Australia deploy troops to Venezuela in support of US forces before 2028?

Jan 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.22%chance

95291

OptionVotes

YES

4765

210

Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon

Dec 13, 6:22 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

234376

OptionProbability

Other

4h - 4.5h

2.5h - 3h

3.5h - 4h

3h - 3.5h

4.5h - 5h

5h - 5.5h

2h - 2.5h

5.5h - 6h

<1.5h

1.5h - 2h

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

Aug 8, 2:49 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

10%chance

493247

OptionVotes

YES

1334

928

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

29.81%chance

263046

OptionVotes

YES

1535

652

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

15.21%chance

152357

OptionVotes

YES

2361

424

Will Dan Osborn be elected to Nebraska's US Senate seat in 2026?

Mar 3, 1:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.49%chance

51149

OptionVotes

YES

1021

952

Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?

Aug 13, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.85%chance

71129

OptionVotes

YES

2075

482

Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?

Apr 4, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.98%chance

10919

OptionVotes

YES

1001

1000

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

5787

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q3 2027

Q1 2027

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Anduril will not IPO

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

9345

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

David Walliams publicly disgraced by 2027

Dec 19, 11:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.08%chance

4125

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

Feb 10, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

111

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Ukraine
US Foreign Policy
Politics
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Interviews With Bret Baier on Fox News Special Report After Meeting President Trump at 6 p.m. ET August 18, 2025
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9 months ago

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Will Australia deploy troops to Venezuela in support of US forces before 2028?

Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Will Dan Osborn be elected to Nebraska's US Senate seat in 2026?

Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?

Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

David Walliams publicly disgraced by 2027

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

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