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Top stories

China’s Wang Yi Courts India, Afghanistan and Pakistan in Security and CPEC Push

China’s Wang Yi Courts India, Afghanistan and Pakistan in Security and CPEC Push

Authors

37

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Special Representatives

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.56%chance

2920903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5299

189

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment (linked)

Sep 4, 3:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97975

OptionProbability

Trump isn’t convicted of any of these charges

Conviction(s) in exactly 1 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 2 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 3 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in all 4 of the charges.

98

1

1

1

1

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.82%chance

155261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

611

Will a democrat win the CA 1st congressional district special election to replace Doug LaMalfa?

Jan 6, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.85%chance

53193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

513

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Dan Osborn be elected to Nebraska's US Senate seat in 2026?

Mar 3, 1:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.49%chance

51149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

952

Will Democrats retake the House before the 120th Congress?

Nov 13, 8:07 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

3.35%chance

6670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

537

19

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

12651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Who will win the November 2026 election for the Texas State Senate District 9 seat?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

5596

OptionProbability

Taylor Rehmet

Leigh Wambsganss

Other

76

18

6

Who will win the 2026 Democratic primary for Texas's 18th congressional district?

Feb 19, 11:36 AMMay 26, 12:00 AM

10346

OptionProbability

Christian Menefee

Al Green

81

19

Will there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?

Dec 4, 10:41 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

16.48%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

44

Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?

Aug 14, 6:55 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

35.85%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

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