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Top stories

China’s Wang Yi Courts India, Afghanistan and Pakistan in Security and CPEC Push

China’s Wang Yi Courts India, Afghanistan and Pakistan in Security and CPEC Push

Authors

37

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Special Representatives

Who will become the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Apr 1, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

248836

OptionProbability

Ciprian Ciucu

Daniel Băluță

Anca Alexandrescu

Cătălin Drulă

Ana Ciceală

Vlad Gheorghe

Other

Gabriela Firea

Cristian Popescu Piedone

Rareș Hopincă

Cătălin Cîrstoiu

George-Cristian Tuță

Vlad Voiculescu

Elena Lasconi

Clotilde Armand

Sebastian Burduja

Claudiu Târziu

Mihai Enache

Diana Șoșoacă

Eugen Tomac

Nicușor Dan will not win the presidential elections

Dan Trifu

38

32

13

11

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment (linked)

Sep 4, 3:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97975

OptionProbability

Trump isn’t convicted of any of these charges

Conviction(s) in exactly 1 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 2 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 3 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in all 4 of the charges.

98

1

1

1

1

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.71%chance

103987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

874

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.2%chance

71174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

519

Will Democrats retake the House before the 120th Congress?

Nov 13, 8:07 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

3.35%chance

6670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

537

19

US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035.

Jan 8, 6:33 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

9.88%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

121

Did Microsoft build a Majorana qubit?

Feb 21, 1:31 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

16.89%chance

8255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

150

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

183

Will there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?

Dec 4, 10:41 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

24.6%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?

Aug 14, 6:55 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

25.01%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

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