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Prediction markets for Starship
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM
8.13%chance
127235268
OptionVotes
3153
961
OptionProbability
100
97
29
3
2
1
1
0
OptionVotes
6356
304
OptionVotes
4583
1054
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.72%chance
6445633
OptionVotes
33225
2613
OptionVotes
1320
1096
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.65%chance
10539006
OptionVotes
18122
919
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM
2.17%chance
3517355
OptionVotes
7670
470
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?
Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
2.81%chance
5414376
OptionVotes
2429
15
OptionProbability
74
21
2
1
1
1
0
OptionVotes
30796
28524
OptionProbability
95
92
91
88
85
84
84
84
82
56
55
49
45