State Fair News

1 day ago

Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?

Jan 1, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10056029

OptionProbability

Israel / Iran

Nigeria / Cameroon

Balochistan / Anyone

India / Pakistan

Central African Republic Civil War

Kurdistan / Anyone

Iraqi Conflict

Bangladesh / Anyone

United States / Iran

Azerbaijan / Armenia

100

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

22111

4523

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6016181

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

547116

OptionVotes

YES

1739

575

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

76.05%chance

236874

OptionVotes

YES

1782

561

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57%chance

454982

OptionVotes

YES

3038

945

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

23.43%chance

724123

OptionVotes

YES

1559

1006

Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?

Sep 2, 8:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.23%chance

162896

OptionVotes

YES

1697

589

What topics/issue/event should the general public be paying the most attention to right now?

Jul 31, 10:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32120

OptionProbability

Daniel Sheehan' lectures at Romero and Paradigm Institute

This mechanism could align ASI. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration

UAP disclosure

Chris Bledsoe and his experiences with orbs.

Other

Frontier level AI was just opensourced.

Plasmoids in New Jersey

Telepathy Tapes

RFK is actually telling the truth. If you spend more than 100 hours researching his claims, most of the mainstream articles about him sound just like the article written by the Guardian about Manifest.

Jack Kruse and decentralized medicine

Balaji Srinivasan's instructions for how to build a network state (fair and transparent government).

Eliezer Yudkowsky's warning that we must STOP AGI.

Willow quantum computing chip

Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026?

Jan 9, 8:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

7795

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

73.06%chance

14725

OptionProbability

YES

1645

852

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

1403

713

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Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?

What topics/issue/event should the general public be paying the most attention to right now?

Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026?

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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