State Fair News

6 months ago

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6216685

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

18.29%chance

4610088

OptionVotes

YES

1576

823

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

70%chance

277410

OptionVotes

YES

1195

123

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.81%chance

557166

OptionVotes

YES

1789

559

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

YES

2633

1338

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

39.81%chance

754549

OptionVotes

YES

1289

924

Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?

Jan 25, 4:01 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

25.49%chance

192020

OptionVotes

YES

1710

585

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

1023

980

Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027

Jan 1, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.83%chance

81069

OptionVotes

YES

1727

581

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

1403

713

2026 Winter Olympics: Figure Skating Gold Medal Winner (W)

Jan 12, 12:12 PMFeb 16, 11:59 PM

3364

OptionProbability

Adeliia PETROSIAN (AIN)

Alysa LIU (USA)

Amber GLENN (USA)

Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)

Other

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Aug 15, 2025
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At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

2026 Winter Olympics: Figure Skating Gold Medal Winner (W)

Latest stories

Join our channels

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