State Fair News

1 year ago

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

YES

1294

776

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7021658

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.97%chance

5010404

OptionVotes

YES

1767

784

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

70%chance

297590

OptionVotes

YES

1195

123

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.75%chance

557169

OptionVotes

YES

1792

558

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.35%chance

185704

OptionVotes

YES

2109

474

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52%chance

475654

OptionVotes

YES

2864

1090

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

30.85%chance

794817

OptionVotes

YES

1207

1136

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

Aug 5, 6:05 PMNov 5, 6:54 PM

16.1%chance

19829

OptionVotes

YES

1212

937

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

1392

718

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

1137

918

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Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
US Elections
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Texas
Texas Republicans Fail to Approve Trump-Backed Congressional Maps as Democrats Block Redistricting, Flood Relief Ahead of 2026 Midterms
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1 year ago

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8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram