State Fair News

10 months ago

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6520838

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.84%chance

5010342

OptionVotes

YES

1779

781

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

70%chance

297590

OptionVotes

YES

1195

123

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.75%chance

557169

OptionVotes

YES

1792

558

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

YES

2633

1338

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

30.85%chance

794817

OptionVotes

YES

1207

1136

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.4%chance

144009

OptionVotes

YES

1670

599

Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027

Jan 1, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.34%chance

112763

OptionVotes

YES

1659

135

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

YES

1439

697

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Feb 25, 3:42 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

48.83%chance

221160

OptionVotes

YES

102

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

1403

713

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Aug 15, 2025
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Texas
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10 months ago

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At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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