State Fair News

7 months ago

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6318985

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

1609

816

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

67.92%chance

287420

OptionVotes

YES

1173

133

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.81%chance

557166

OptionVotes

YES

1789

559

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

YES

2633

1338

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

38%chance

774600

OptionVotes

YES

1258

973

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.02%chance

143293

OptionVotes

YES

1938

516

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

YES

1307

768

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Feb 25, 3:42 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

32%chance

201103

OptionVotes

YES

146

Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027

Jan 1, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.86%chance

81084

OptionVotes

YES

1683

596

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

1403

713

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At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Latest stories

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