State Fair News

4 months ago

Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?

Jan 1, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16698528

OptionProbability

Israel / Iran

Nigeria / Cameroon

Balochistan / Anyone

Central African Republic Civil War

India / Pakistan

Kurdistan / Anyone

Iraqi Conflict

Bangladesh / Anyone

Azerbaijan / Armenia

United States / Iran

100

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.68%chance

2236231

OptionVotes

YES

34661

2885

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6216685

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.81%chance

557166

OptionVotes

YES

1789

559

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

75%chance

246974

OptionVotes

YES

1732

577

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.21%chance

465032

OptionVotes

YES

2974

995

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

39.81%chance

754549

OptionVotes

YES

1289

924

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.02%chance

143293

OptionVotes

YES

1938

516

Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?

Sep 2, 8:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.46%chance

162952

OptionVotes

YES

1753

570

Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026?

Jan 9, 8:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.36%chance

101145

OptionVotes

YES

1166

857

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

1403

713

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Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?

Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026?

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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