State Fair News

1 year ago

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7021658

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

16.53%chance

5010354

OptionVotes

YES

1717

793

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

70%chance

297590

OptionVotes

YES

1195

123

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.75%chance

557169

OptionVotes

YES

1792

558

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.49%chance

475638

OptionVotes

YES

2881

1075

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

30.85%chance

794817

OptionVotes

YES

1207

1136

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

YES

1838

546

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Feb 25, 3:42 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

55%chance

261233

OptionVotes

YES

111

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

13931

OptionVotes

YES

1182

959

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

1392

718

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

1137

918

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Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
US Elections
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Texas
Texas Republicans Fail to Approve Trump-Backed Congressional Maps as Democrats Block Redistricting, Flood Relief Ahead of 2026 Midterms
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1 year ago

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At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Latest stories

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