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Prediction markets for State Fair
At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?
Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
6721266
OptionProbability
61
29
6
3
Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?
Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM
16.53%chance
5010354
OptionVotes
1717
793
Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?
Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM
70%chance
297590
OptionVotes
1195
123
Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?
Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM
23.75%chance
557169
OptionVotes
1792
558
Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?
Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
48%chance
465490
OptionVotes
2733
1221
Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?
Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM
30.85%chance
794817
OptionVotes
1207
1136
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66%chance
262608
OptionVotes
1396
719
Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?
Feb 25, 3:42 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM
52%chance
231166
OptionVotes
104
96
If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?
Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17%chance
11920
OptionVotes
1173
961
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)
Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM
75.9%chance
14875
OptionProbability
1795
801
Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?
Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.7%chance
15616
OptionVotes
1403
713
Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?
Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35%chance
10601
OptionVotes
1137
918
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