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Prediction markets for Sui
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
77.32%chance
10519439
OptionVotes
1897
748
Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?
Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
87.54%chance
1247563
OptionVotes
2579
1807
Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?
Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM
13.47%chance
292715
OptionVotes
2052
699
Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2035?
Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
27.78%chance
52305
OptionVotes
1612
620
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
Mar 10, 5:39 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM
37%chance
331777
OptionVotes
995
995
Will suicide become allowed in any US state by the end of 2029?
Nov 18, 12:46 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
18.37%chance
22987
OptionVotes
1102
924
News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026
Jan 2, 7:48 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM
65.83%chance
5722
OptionVotes
1388
721
Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?
Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
32.63%chance
5564
OptionVotes
1437
696
Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?
Nov 18, 2:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
18.9%chance
14273
OptionVotes
1081
966
Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?
Aug 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
43.83%chance
5256
OptionVotes
1132
883
Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?
Aug 3, 3:38 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
52.36%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2045?
Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
50.24%chance
15
OptionVotes
1005
995
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