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Prediction markets for Supervised
Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?
Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM
15.68%chance
24770128
OptionVotes
1877
733
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
23029098
OptionProbability
32
28
24
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
79
9
6
4
3
OptionProbability
43
35
21
1
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
14.47%chance
223780
OptionVotes
2380
283
OptionProbability
55
50
46
42
31
5
0
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
36.84%chance
242303
OptionVotes
1098
735
Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?
Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.88%chance
452163
OptionVotes
1137
885
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.96%chance
131199
OptionVotes
1689
592
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.93%chance
23884
OptionVotes
1144
495
Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?
Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
14.93%chance
15513
OptionVotes
1208
932