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Tesla Reports Autopilot Crash Rate Drops to 1 in 6.7 Million Miles

10 days ago

Tesla Begins FSD Tests in London, Eyes EU Approval

Britain

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Tesla Begins FSD Tests in London, Eyes EU Approval

10 days ago

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

19838053

OptionVotes

YES

1455

827

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8215169

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

213760

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Sep 20, 4:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

82515

OptionVotes

YES

2899

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.51%chance

452128

OptionVotes

YES

1092

908

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.84%chance

221596

OptionVotes

YES

1576

292

Johnny Somali actually serves 30+ days sentence in a South Korean Jail/prison/physical confinement, through mid 2027

Mar 7, 6:13 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

80.09%chance

51448

OptionVotes

YES

2006

499

By the year 2030, will it be routine for autonomous robotic systems to perform surgical interventions?

Aug 23, 1:07 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

19%chance

211033

OptionVotes

YES

1011

979

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

YES

1124

534

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.93%chance

15513

OptionVotes

YES

1208

932

Which papers will the next GPT iteration technical report cite?

Apr 5, 2:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5152

OptionProbability

WEAK-TO-STRONG GENERALIZATION: ELICITING STRONG CAPABILITIES WITH WEAK SUPERVISION

Textbooks Are All You Need

Graph of Thoughts: Solving Elaborate Problems with Large Language Models

ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models

PaLM 2 Technical Report

Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models

Mathematical discoveries from program search with large language models

GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants

Mixture-of-Depths: Dynamically allocating compute in transformer-based language models

At the end of 2025 will a DINO-based algorithm still be SOTA for self-supervised learning in vision?

Feb 13, 5:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.31%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

106

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Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

Johnny Somali actually serves 30+ days sentence in a South Korean Jail/prison/physical confinement, through mid 2027

By the year 2030, will it be routine for autonomous robotic systems to perform surgical interventions?

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Which papers will the next GPT iteration technical report cite?

At the end of 2025 will a DINO-based algorithm still be SOTA for self-supervised learning in vision?

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