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Top stories

Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise

Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise

Authors

12

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Supervised

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

22728323

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

28

27

25

8

5

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

44

35

21

1

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.88%chance

452163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

885

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

Dec 15, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31485

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Nov 2026

After 2027-01-01

Before Sep 2026

Before July 2026

Before May 2026

Before Mar 2026

55

50

46

42

31

29

16

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

938

Johnny Somali actually serves 30+ days sentence in a South Korean Jail/prison/physical confinement, through mid 2027

Mar 7, 6:13 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

80.09%chance

51448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2006

499

By the year 2030, will it be routine for autonomous robotic systems to perform surgical interventions?

Aug 23, 1:07 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

17.67%chance

211108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

963

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.93%chance

15513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

932

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

Sep 14, 11:57 AM

10

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