DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
Download on the App Store
Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

System Security Plan News

    Prediction markets for System Security Plan

    Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

    Oct 14, 7:05 PMJan 1, 7:01 PM
    7453048

    OptionProbability

    If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

    If I accept the Genesis job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

    If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

    If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

    If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

    If I accept the Genesis job, what will be my bonus in my first full year? (At a rate of 1 percentage point = $3000. So e.g. if it's $100k this answer resolves to 33%.)

    If I accept the Genesis job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years be at least 1.5 million?

    If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

    If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

    If I accept the Genesis job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

    If I accept the Penguin job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

    Will I accept the Genesis job? (As opposed to Penguin, resolves N/A if some weird third thing happens.)

    80

    79

    77

    74

    64

    62

    60

    59

    59

    21

    21

    0

    OptionProbability

    Under 65 yo

    Under 60 yo

    Straight

    Has a STEM degree of any type

    Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

    Is an American citizen

    If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

    Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

    Under 55 yo

    Speaks a foreign language

    Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

    Has been a CEO

    Is married

    Under 50 yo

    Has children

    Self described person of color

    Has ethnic Asian heritage

    Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

    Software Engineering background

    Was not an American citizen at birth

    Went to a private high school

    Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

    Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

    Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

    Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

    Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

    Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

    Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

    Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement

    Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

    Has attended Davos

    Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

    Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

    Non-native English speaker

    CEO will take office after Q2 2027

    Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

    Is an only child

    Born in the USA

    Has ethnic European heritage

    Diversity Points Score: 1

    Has visited or lived in China

    Has ever been divorced

    Has PhD

    Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

    Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

    Under 45 yo

    Has written and published a book either academic or non

    Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

    Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

    Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

    Has submitted and received 2+ patents

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

    Diversity Points Score: 0

    Under 40 yo

    Has Jewish heritage

    Neither parent attended college

    Was a college-level athlete

    Has any public mention of playing pickleball

    Has at least 3 children

    Is publicly Christian

    Diversity Points Score: 2

    Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

    Blue eyes

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

    Diversity Points Score: 3

    Diversity Points Score: 4

    If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

    Tattoo

    Has served in us govt

    Has passed a bar exam

    Female

    Born in the northeast

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

    Raised in a single parent family

    Left-handed

    Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

    Grew up in poverty

    Catholic

    Physics Background

    Green eyes

    Is Hispanic

    Both parents had PhDs

    LGBT*+

    Has military experience

    Has worked or attended school in Israel

    Is Muslim

    Unnatural hair colour

    Has ethnic African heritage

    Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

    Has a physical disability

    Has been to space

    Has an ADOS background

    Pronouns are not standard

    Has a speech impediment

    Trans

    Is an AI

    Has a Manifold account

    97

    90

    89

    85

    84

    84

    83

    82

    69

    68

    67

    65

    65

    62

    62

    61

    58

    57

    56

    55

    53

    52

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    46

    46

    46

    45

    45

    44

    44

    43

    43

    40

    40

    38

    37

    37

    37

    36

    35

    35

    33

    32

    32

    31

    30

    29

    29

    29

    29

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    27

    27

    27

    27

    25

    24

    23

    22

    22

    22

    22

    19

    19

    18

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    15

    15

    13

    13

    11

    10

    9

    8

    7

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    When will Anduril Industries IPO?

    May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM
    216583

    OptionProbability

    Q2 2027

    Q3 2027

    Q4 2027

    2028 or later

    Q1 2027

    Anduril will not IPO

    Q4 2026

    Q3 2025

    Q4 2025

    Q1 2026

    Q2 2026

    Q3 2026

    26

    22

    12

    12

    11

    8

    5

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

    Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM
    1.89%chance
    643044

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    720

    14

    Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

    Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    18.08%chance
    212832

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2129

    470

    Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

    Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    18.17%chance
    16992

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1100

    977

    Will DC metro trains (all lines) have no staff onboard by 2035?

    May 20, 12:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    15.22%chance
    6793

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    236

    42

    Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

    May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    82.42%chance
    12759

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    217

    46

    OptionProbability

    After

    Before Oct 2026

    Before Jul 2026

    Before Apr 2026

    64

    24

    17

    10

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    150

    67

Latest stories

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

  • WhatsApp

    Top Stories

    Join
  • Telegram

    Top Stories

    Join