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Prediction markets for System
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM
33.36%chance
26243164
OptionVotes
7001
1909
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...
Dec 5, 2:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
1839309
OptionProbability
100
100
65
45
will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
33.35%chance
2720656
OptionVotes
6224
5524
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
64.45%chance
4719184
OptionVotes
1306
760
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
84%chance
14011901
OptionVotes
2670
1441
Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?
Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33%chance
134578
OptionVotes
1425
702
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.81%chance
114493
OptionVotes
10081
9577
Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?
Apr 23, 12:36 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
17%chance
674019
OptionVotes
1943
1128
Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?
Mar 25, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.41%chance
343805
OptionVotes
2315
774
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
28.93%chance
723463
OptionVotes
1251
1187
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?
Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
66.28%chance
8844
OptionVotes
4652
3621
Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?
Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
20.71%chance
10359
OptionVotes
237
92