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Prediction markets for TA
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
63.56%chance
34292734811
OptionVotes
12383
7881
OptionVotes
243417
3324
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31.19%chance
861470662
OptionVotes
15727
12532
Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?
Jan 16, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
65%chance
579291019
OptionVotes
1422
158
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
85.09%chance
494196005
OptionVotes
5011
1123
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
21.04%chance
489137124
OptionVotes
3134
2099
OptionVotes
22604
7167
Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?
Jan 22, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
8.18%chance
2124556
OptionVotes
29027
6559
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
23.41%chance
8720078
OptionVotes
12408
8996
Will Trump's use of IEEPA to enact tariffs without congress be ruled unlawful?
Mar 11, 1:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
43.19%chance
1619132
OptionVotes
11470
8719
Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?
Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM
30.29%chance
75041
OptionVotes
12910
8301
Will "We might be missing some key feature of AI ta..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 22, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
110
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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