Task Manager News

11 days ago

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

Oct 18, 7:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.53%chance

12915862

OptionVotes

YES

1562

885

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

YES

1103

907

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.51%chance

25837

OptionVotes

YES

1458

911

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16692

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030

Mar 24, 2:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5212

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

Mar 24, 2:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6138

Given a set of tasks and LLM will be able to manage 90% of the communication with a contractor by 2026

May 5, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.49%chance

666

OptionVotes

YES

156

112

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

49.79%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

5014

4986

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

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Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

Given a set of tasks and LLM will be able to manage 90% of the communication with a contractor by 2026

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram