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Prediction markets for Task Manager
OptionVotes
1562
885
4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.
Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
54.88%chance
242972
OptionVotes
1103
907
OptionVotes
1458
911
When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs
May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16692
After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?
Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
10432
OptionProbability
51
30
9
2
2
2
2
2
2
[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030
Mar 24, 2:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
5212
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?
Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
1150
[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027
Mar 24, 2:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
6138
Given a set of tasks and LLM will be able to manage 90% of the communication with a contractor by 2026
May 5, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
67.49%chance
666
OptionVotes
156
112
Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?
Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM
49.79%chance
424
OptionVotes
5014
4986
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