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OpenAI’s ChatGPT App Hits Nearly 700 Million Installs, $2 Billion Revenue Since May 2023 and $500 Billion Valuation After GPT-5

Company Earnings

OpenAI’s ChatGPT App Hits Nearly 700 Million Installs, $2 Billion Revenue Since May 2023 and $500 Billion Valuation After GPT-5

6

9 months ago

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

7216343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

490

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Manifold markets next valuation > $20m if announced by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 9:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.01%chance

112332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

905

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Is Anthropic's "Confidential Investor" Elon Musk?

Apr 11, 2:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

181106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

882

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

What market cap will Tesla reach before 2036?

Nov 8, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7468

OptionProbability

$ 2 trillion

$ 3 trillion

$ 4 trillion

$ 6 trillion

$ 8.5 trillion

88

50

41

34

21

What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?

May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5433

OptionProbability

5-8

8-11

2-5

11-14

14-17

17-20

20-23

23-26

26-29

29-32

32-35

35-38

38-41

41-44

44-47

47-50

50-53

53-56

56-59

59-62

62-65

65-68

68-71

71-74

74-77

77-80

80-83

83-86

86-89

89-92

92-95

95-98

98-101

101-104

104-107

107-110

110-113

113-116

116-119

119-122

122-125

125-128

128-131

131-134

134-137

137-140

140-143

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1X NEO humanoid robot ships to first consumer homes by June 30, 2026

Nov 25, 1:50 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

5.44%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

417

24

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

When will waymo come to Chicago

Mar 28, 4:04 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

398

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030 or later

2026

33

29

15

15

8

Will there be a second breach of Mythos by EOM May 2026?

Apr 22, 12:05 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

43.8%chance

658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

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