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Prediction markets for Tems
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6.72%chance
8781874800
OptionVotes
40383
9070
Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade
Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.62%chance
13623838
OptionVotes
1928
769
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
27.79%chance
3318998
OptionVotes
14362
7595
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?
Feb 23, 12:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
34.89%chance
3212719
OptionVotes
1081
949
[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM
118197
OptionProbability
40
22
22
6
5
2
1
1
Will the world pass 1.5 C average annual temperature by 2030?
Oct 16, 12:16 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM
89.83%chance
296621
OptionVotes
1720
850
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?
Feb 17, 2:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
32.03%chance
343381
OptionVotes
1074
757
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?
Feb 7, 10:31 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM
25.92%chance
342389
OptionVotes
1011
957
Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Feb 11, 4:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
34%chance
241636
OptionVotes
1012
914
Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?
Dec 4, 12:08 PMDec 5, 12:04 PM
49.37%chance
9369
OptionVotes
1013
988
Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?
Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
34.84%chance
9151
OptionVotes
1206
1102
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25