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Top stories

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Ten Most Wanted

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.4%chance

471686608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17380

10301

Will Manifold solve my puzzle?

Nov 3, 6:25 PMDec 31, 5:55 PM

50%chance

12985786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

11337948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29769

3359

Will I get my shit together by the end of the year?

Oct 15, 10:42 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

27.96%chance

3111741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16052

6230

If Trump is elected, will he implement one of the policies listed in the description?

Dec 19, 12:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

556989

OptionProbability

Trump is elected and implements "Project 2025"

Trump is elected and don't implements "Project 2025"

Biden / Other is elected and no big change in power structure

Biden / Other is elected and big change in power structure

Other

89

9

1

0

0

Will the next Republican victory lead to an unprecedented consolidation of power?

Nov 5, 3:49 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

5.6%chance

345337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

941

How does The Pivot effect the the interest rate until...?

Apr 22, 11:47 PMApr 23, 9:59 PM

83884

OptionProbability

23 April, 2026 (Noon UTC)

23 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

24 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

25 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

26 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

27 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

28 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

29 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

30 April, 2024 (Noon UTC)

1 May, 2024 (Noon UTC)

2 May, 2024 (Noon UTC)

23 May, 2024 (Noon UTC)

23 October, 2024 (Noon UTC)

23 April, 2025 (Noon UTC)

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

Mar 2, 11:22 PMDec 3, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

171074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

850

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8363

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

66

51

40

22

7

GDP in 2028 if a republican gets elected 2024? [Ṁ500 subsidized]

Sep 27, 6:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8273

OptionProbability

Other

34

33

35

36

47

17

16

11

9

When will Senegal abandon the CFA franc?

Apr 1, 9:40 AMApr 1, 9:59 PM

588

OptionProbability

Not abandoned after March 2029

Before end of March 2027

Before end of March 2029

Before end of March 2028

44

26

19

11

Taiwan China Potential Conflict Style Guide - Feedback Wanted

Mar 12, 10:26 AM

00

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