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Prediction markets for Tests
OptionProbability
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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.69%chance
998752698
OptionVotes
12331
8038
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45%chance
6128469
OptionVotes
1221
608
Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?
Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
54.54%chance
6311791
OptionVotes
1000
937
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Aug 12, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
5.77%chance
435651
OptionVotes
3443
143
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?
Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
81.17%chance
273717
OptionVotes
2082
321
Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)
Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
54.73%chance
301932
OptionVotes
2090
1821
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?
Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.63%chance
101101
OptionVotes
1389
366
By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?
Oct 12, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
25.75%chance
15693
OptionVotes
1123
937
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.9%chance
13690
OptionVotes
1308
765
Will Captopril significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)
Feb 27, 6:10 PMJan 7, 3:59 PM
31.65%chance
1082
OptionVotes
1049
969
Will Bryan Johnson test the functional age of his T cells/ hepatocytes via functional assays by 2028? (#NewLimit)
May 24, 10:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.36%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954