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Prediction markets for Tests
OptionProbability
12
10
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10
8
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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.68%chance
985744202
OptionVotes
10678
9273
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.77%chance
6028363
OptionVotes
1136
685
Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?
Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
54.54%chance
6311791
OptionVotes
1000
937
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?
Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77.18%chance
222072
OptionVotes
1890
371
Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)
Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
54.73%chance
301932
OptionVotes
2090
1821
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.9%chance
13690
OptionVotes
1308
765
By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?
Oct 12, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
27%chance
14643
OptionVotes
1073
955
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?
Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29%chance
6531
OptionVotes
1011
888
An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question
Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM
40.78%chance
4235
OptionVotes
1205
830
Will Bryan Johnson test the functional age of his T cells/ hepatocytes via functional assays by 2028? (#NewLimit)
May 24, 10:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.36%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
OptionProbability
50
50
50