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Prediction markets for The Entity
Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?
Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
96.62%chance
15546493
OptionVotes
13433
810
Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline GPT models by the end of 2025?
Aug 24, 1:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7.28%chance
4826909
OptionVotes
1789
876
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will OpenAI or another entity connected to Sam Altman raise at least $5 trillion total by the end of 2025?
Feb 9, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.42%chance
424263
OptionVotes
1488
942
Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?
Sep 18, 8:27 AMOct 8, 6:59 AM
5.72%chance
243681
OptionVotes
4058
246
Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2025?
Aug 24, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.9%chance
423082
OptionVotes
2178
769
Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.5%chance
221828
OptionVotes
1606
857
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)
Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
81.82%chance
151229
OptionVotes
1134
950
Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2050?
Aug 26, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.79%chance
11739
OptionVotes
1520
658
Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?
Aug 26, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.47%chance
7430
OptionVotes
1118
895
Conditional on the world being a simulation, what is the probability that you're the only conscious entity in it?
Jul 21, 5:03 PMFeb 2, 8:02 PM
17.76%chance
11275
OptionVotes
1171
943
Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2075?
Aug 26, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.24%chance
235
OptionVotes
1025
976