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Top stories

Paramount Streams ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’ in Morse Code Stunt

Paramount Streams ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’ in Morse Code Stunt

Authors

11

4 months ago

Prediction markets for The Entity

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15747127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13262

816

Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline GPT models by the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 1:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.97%chance

4827659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2539

828

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.94%chance

423832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2928

701

Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.5%chance

221828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1606

857

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)

Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.03%chance

171467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

947

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2050?

Aug 26, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.87%chance

13779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

641

Before 2026, will any government entity in the US announce they are investigating David Sacks?

Mar 3, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.85%chance

7501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

33

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?

Aug 26, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.47%chance

7430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

895

Conditional on the world being a simulation, what is the probability that you're the only conscious entity in it?

Jul 21, 5:03 PMFeb 2, 8:02 PM

17.76%chance

11275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

943

Which entity will be the first to officially announce the creation of AGI?

Jul 14, 9:47 AMJan 1, 9:58 AM

10230

OptionProbability

xAI

Other

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Meta

38

21

15

14

8

4

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2075?

Aug 26, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

962

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