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Top stories

Paramount Streams ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’ in Morse Code Stunt

Paramount Streams ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’ in Morse Code Stunt

Authors

11

6 months ago

Prediction markets for The Entity

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15747127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13262

816

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.5%chance

221828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1606

857

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

231270

OptionProbability

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Rethink Priorities

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Lightcone Infrastructure

Center on Long-Term Risk

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

14

14

13

13

10

8

7

6

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2050?

Aug 26, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.87%chance

13779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

641

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?

Aug 26, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.47%chance

7430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

895

Conditional on the world being a simulation, what is the probability that you're the only conscious entity in it?

Jul 21, 5:03 PMFeb 2, 8:02 PM

17.76%chance

11275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

943

Will a human be the first entity to prove whether Antihydra halts or not?

Oct 29, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.74%chance

5255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

61

Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline GPT models by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 11:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.38%chance

9238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

155

Which entity will be the first to officially announce the creation of AGI?

Jul 14, 9:47 AMJan 1, 9:58 AM

11232

OptionProbability

xAI

Other

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Meta

40

20

15

14

8

4

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2075?

Aug 26, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

962

Does the capacity to suffer make an entity a moral patient?

Oct 5, 12:07 AM

110

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