The Fall News

THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS in Theaters With Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Galactus Reveal, IMAX Upgrade Code FIRSTFAMILY

22 hours ago

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53.08%chance

91101678

OptionVotes

YES

1064

940

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

5405

1263

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.14%chance

6116884

OptionVotes

YES

2008

498

Will I be admitted to MIT in the fall of 2026?

Jun 2, 3:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.9%chance

387393

OptionVotes

YES

1994

502

Will OpenAI inference costs fall by 100x over the next 18 months?

Aug 29, 5:23 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

31.81%chance

225713

OptionVotes

YES

1464

683

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

Feb 1, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32%chance

263773

OptionVotes

YES

1458

686

Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 10 years?

Aug 8, 11:05 PMAug 9, 9:59 PM

14.45%chance

243088

OptionVotes

YES

1144

928

Will the US dollar fall to 0.000004 BTC before 2030?

Apr 20, 4:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

142806

OptionVotes

YES

1383

1098

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

51565

OptionVotes

YES

5554

3487

Will the value of Chinese housing stock fall below 20% of current value? (By 2031)

Feb 9, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.15%chance

25755

OptionVotes

YES

1374

863

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.62%chance

12205

OptionVotes

YES

1071

966

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

OptionProbability

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

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Aug 7, 2025
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THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS in Theaters With Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Galactus Reveal, IMAX Upgrade Code FIRSTFAMILY
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The Fall News

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Prediction markets for The Fall

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Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Will I be admitted to MIT in the fall of 2026?

Will OpenAI inference costs fall by 100x over the next 18 months?

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 10 years?

Will the US dollar fall to 0.000004 BTC before 2030?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Will the value of Chinese housing stock fall below 20% of current value? (By 2031)

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram