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The One Show News

    Prediction markets for The One Show

    Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

    Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    8.21%chance
    7047175

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    33318

    3293

    Will there be a global depression in the 2020s?

    Apr 3, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    12.23%chance
    255748

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2679

    373

    OptionProbability

    You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.

    If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?

    If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?

    If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in

    If your boat here sinks can you go in?

    If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?

    You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.

    The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner

    Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through

    You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.

    If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter

    If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?

    If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass

    If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?

    If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.

    You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.

    The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim

    The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.

    If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in

    You can go through if you open the gate

    You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner

    If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in

    Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate

    You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space

    You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.

    You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.

    Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?

    This market will entirely be excluded from leagues

    You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.

    You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.

    You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner

    You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.

    Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password

    You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner

    You can go in if you are ex navy.

    This market gets more than 100 bettors

    86

    77

    77

    75

    74

    65

    58

    57

    57

    56

    56

    52

    50

    50

    50

    49

    47

    46

    44

    44

    39

    38

    35

    35

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    32

    31

    25

    20

    18

    OptionProbability

    ARTMS

    Yves

    Other

    Chuu

    Loossemble

    77

    13

    7

    2

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    107

    94

    OptionProbability

    I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

    I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

    Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

    Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

    Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

    Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

    Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

    Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

    Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

    Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

    Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

    Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

    Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

    Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

    Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

    Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

    Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

    Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

    Will we have 20+ this year?

    Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

    Will we meet in the library at least once?

    Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

    Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    135

    74

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