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The Sandbox News

    Prediction markets for The Sandbox

    OptionProbability

    YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

    NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

    NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

    NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

    80

    13

    4

    3

    OptionProbability

    Left 4 Dead 3

    Portal 3

    Team Fortress 3

    Far Cry 8

    Counter Strike 3

    Star Craft 3

    Grand Theft Auto 7

    Crysis 4

    Under Night In-Birth 3

    Monaco 3

    Star Citizen

    Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6

    Mega Man 12

    Saints Row (6th main game)

    Red Dead Redemption 3

    Banjo Kazooie 3

    Tekken 9

    Age of Empires 5

    Fallout 5

    Bloody Roar 5

    Physint (Kojima stealth game)

    Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)

    Armored Core 7

    Soul Calibur 7

    Bayonetta 4

    Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15

    Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)

    Final Fantasy 18

    Earth Defense Force 7

    Radio the Universe

    Crackdown 4

    Dead Island 3

    Dead Space 4

    Dead or Alive 7

    Pikmin 5

    Mass Effect 5

    Wolf Among Us 2

    BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)

    Dynasty Origins 12

    Devil May Cry 6

    Riot's MMORPG

    ARK Survival Evolved 2

    Mario Kart 10

    Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)

    Marathon

    Diablo 5

    The Sims 5

    Dynasty Warriors 11 (after origins)

    rivals of aether 3

    Kingdom Hearts 4

    Far Cry 7

    Civilization 8

    Hearts of Iron 5

    Final Fantasy 17

    Street Fighter 7

    Dragon Quest 12

    Darksiders 4

    Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)

    Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)

    A Plague Tale 3

    Need for Speed (26th main game)

    Half Life 3

    Dynasty Warriors Origins

    Gran Turismo 8

    Guilty Gear (after Strive)

    Fable 4

    Monaco 2

    Control 2

    King of Fighters 16

    Hytale

    Splatoon 4

    Command and Conquer 5

    Elder Scrolls 6

    ARMA 4

    Tropico 7

    Haunted Chocolatier

    Witcher 4 Polaris

    Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves

    Persona 6

    Virtua Fighter 6

    deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)

    Grand Theft Auto 6

    Next Gears of War (E Day)

    S&box (Sandbox)

    Resident Evil 9

    Europa Universalis 5

    Outer Worlds 2

    Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2

    Little Nightmares 3

    2XKO

    Silent Hill f (the next main game)

    Skate 4

    Silksong (Hollow Knight)

    Killing Floor 3

    Death Stranding 2

    Mario Kart 9

    Monster Hunter Wilds

    Civilization 7

    Slitterhead

    Rivals of Aether 2

    Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)

    Frostpunk 2

    Prince of Persia after Lost Crown

    Hades 2

    94

    91

    90

    88

    87

    86

    85

    85

    85

    82

    80

    78

    77

    76

    75

    75

    74

    74

    73

    68

    66

    65

    56

    56

    56

    56

    56

    56

    56

    56

    56

    56

    56

    55

    55

    55

    55

    55

    55

    54

    54

    53

    53

    53

    52

    51

    50

    50

    50

    44

    44

    44

    44

    43

    42

    42

    41

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    38

    37

    37

    36

    36

    35

    35

    34

    32

    32

    32

    31

    30

    29

    28

    27

    25

    24

    23

    22

    21

    20

    19

    18

    17

    16

    15

    14

    13

    12

    11

    10

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

    Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    67.48%chance
    17717380

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    3301

    1379

    OptionProbability

    The web will not substantially improve before 2032

    WeChat

    Appflowy

    Agregore Browser

    There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

    Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

    The current web will reform before a transition can occur

    Ad4m

    Brave Browser

    Replit

    Something from Epic Games

    Anytype

    Logseq

    Horizon Worlds

    Modular Web

    Playbit

    VRChat

    Discord

    Flutter

    Welkin

    Gopher

    Fuchsia OS

    The Zed editor

    emacs

    World App (the one with the orbs)

    X.com

    roblox

    85

    20

    17

    17

    17

    16

    15

    13

    13

    13

    12

    11

    10

    10

    10

    8

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    3

    Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

    Aug 6, 12:41 AMAug 6, 12:39 AM
    52.96%chance
    6980

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1061

    942

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1466

    682

    Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

    Aug 6, 12:49 AMAug 6, 12:48 AM
    32.23%chance
    4450

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1450

    690

    OptionProbability

    3 years: Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won’t even be a surprise

    1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code

    1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing

    1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season

    3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other

    6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards

    1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    40

    35

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    166

    60

    Liiv Sandbox [LOL stock]

    Mar 17, 4:35 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM
    59.02%chance
    110

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    60

    42

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