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Prediction markets for The Sandbox
Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?
Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM
19947933
OptionProbability
80
13
4
3
🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (21 DONE)
Feb 28, 6:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
9722358
OptionProbability
94
91
90
88
87
86
85
85
85
82
80
78
77
76
75
75
74
74
73
68
66
65
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
55
55
55
55
55
55
54
54
53
53
53
52
51
50
50
50
44
44
44
44
43
42
42
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40
40
40
40
39
39
38
37
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36
36
35
35
34
32
32
32
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29
28
27
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
3301
1379
Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
22.94%chance
506840
OptionVotes
5436
3015
Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)
Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM
243255
OptionProbability
85
20
17
17
17
16
15
13
13
13
12
11
10
10
10
8
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Aug 6, 12:41 AMAug 6, 12:39 AM
52.96%chance
6980
OptionVotes
1061
942
Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?
Jul 23, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.76%chance
13667
OptionVotes
1466
682
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Aug 6, 12:49 AMAug 6, 12:48 AM
32.23%chance
4450
OptionVotes
1450
690
OptionProbability
100
50
50
50
50
40
35
Will Google Chrome's "Privacy Sandbox" have user opt-in rates similar to third-party cookies?
Jan 23, 4:34 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM
73.38%chance
2110
OptionVotes
166
60
Will "Among Us: A Sandbox for Agentic Deception" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 11, 4:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.32%chance
271
OptionVotes
1051
992
OptionVotes
60
42


