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Prediction markets for Think
OptionVotes
2814
1812
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
2231111
OptionProbability
65
56
42
21
7
0
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.63%chance
7921645
OptionVotes
2729
2049
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
12%chance
2211616
OptionVotes
3226
238
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.29%chance
464116
OptionVotes
2622
208
Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM
69.56%chance
393689
OptionVotes
1490
674
Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?
May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM
60.3%chance
323637
OptionVotes
1232
811
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM
26.09%chance
152808
OptionVotes
1777
338
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM
49.65%chance
461868
OptionVotes
309
111
Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?
Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
97%chance
21844
OptionVotes
9256
7401
At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
Dec 13, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
86.88%chance
221565
OptionVotes
1419
1284
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32%chance
24591
OptionVotes
1065
819
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