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Top stories

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

Authors

59

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Think

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will this tweet hold up: I think you guys need to mentally prepare yourselves for Sinners not winning a single thing

Oct 20, 3:48 PMMar 15, 3:36 PM

8.32%chance

227394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4959

566

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

66.56%chance

383588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

722

Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)

Apr 8, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

252543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

609

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Feb 2, 4:11 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

67%chance

282023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

904

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

46.44%chance

461858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

101

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Dec 13, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.88%chance

221565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

1284

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.16%chance

22378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

788

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
China
Stocks
AI Modeling
DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock
Authors
59
6 months ago

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