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Top stories

Oracle Integrates OpenAI’s GPT-5 as Enterprise Demand Surges

Oracle Integrates OpenAI’s GPT-5 as Enterprise Demand Surges

Authors

67

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Thinking

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?

Mar 29, 11:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.13%chance

253108030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7116

1406

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2333334

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

39

15

5

0

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.48%chance

474616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3122

158

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

56.45%chance

424113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

891

[400 mana bounty]What inexpensive things, if I buy, will I think was worth the time and money in terms of improving QOL?

Sep 29, 1:30 AMJan 1, 2:29 AM

341911

OptionProbability

Extra phone charger

Waterproof shower speaker

Premium shower head

Rechargeable motion-sensor LED light (for closets, hallways, or under the bed)

New pillow

Shoe horn

100

65

61

60

58

39

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

111

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

21844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9256

7401

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10107

9894

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Dec 13, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.88%chance

221565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

1284

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

24591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

819

What month do you think that Barracuda 2.0 in Okeechobee Florida closes down as in out of business or sold?

Oct 6, 4:38 PMOct 6, 4:36 PM

00

OptionProbability

October

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Modeling
AI Products
AI
Oracle Integrates OpenAI’s GPT-5 as Enterprise Demand Surges
Authors
67
1 year ago

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