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Prediction markets for Thinking
OptionVotes
6679
1430
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
2333334
OptionProbability
65
56
39
15
5
0
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.63%chance
7921645
OptionVotes
2729
2049
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7.48%chance
474616
OptionVotes
3122
158
Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM
56.45%chance
424113
OptionVotes
1117
891
[400 mana bounty]What inexpensive things, if I buy, will I think was worth the time and money in terms of improving QOL?
Sep 29, 1:30 AMJan 1, 2:29 AM
341911
OptionProbability
100
65
61
60
58
39
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM
49.65%chance
461868
OptionVotes
309
111
Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?
Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
97%chance
21844
OptionVotes
9256
7401
In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?
Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM
50.53%chance
111652
OptionVotes
10107
9894
At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
Dec 13, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
86.88%chance
221565
OptionVotes
1419
1284
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32%chance
24591
OptionVotes
1065
819
What month do you think that Barracuda 2.0 in Okeechobee Florida closes down as in out of business or sold?
Oct 6, 4:38 PMOct 6, 4:36 PM
00
OptionProbability
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
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