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Prediction markets for Tokyo
OptionProbability
23
22
11
8
8
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
Will China be stripped of at least three swimming medals from the Tokyo Olympics?
Apr 20, 10:16 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM
17.82%chance
181077
OptionVotes
474
98
Will this Angine de Poitrine video get more views than the number of inhabitants of the Tokyo metro area within a year?
Aug 3, 10:29 AMAug 3, 10:23 AM
37.84%chance
7825
OptionVotes
1496
390
Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?
Oct 21, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17753
OptionProbability
100
100
100
76
75
71
69
68
66
66
62
59
59
59
58
58
56
55
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
OptionProbability
68
68
67
66
57
55
55
50
50
41
38
38
38
38
35
28
28
27
27
27
21
20
20
15
7
Will Tokyo get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
Apr 19, 1:48 AMJan 1, 7:01 AM
5.63%chance
10717
OptionVotes
580
128
OptionProbability
55
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
46
3
Which tall buildings will Tetra visit between September 2025 and December 2026?
Sep 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3380
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
42
34
2
Will regularly-scheduled supersonic flights operate between Los Angeles and Tokyo in 2050?
Jun 20, 12:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
46.68%chance
11288
OptionVotes
172
165
Super high speed travel: 90 minutes from NYC to Tokyo before 2047
Jun 12, 9:39 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM
15.48%chance
7236
OptionVotes
275
107
OptionProbability
26
22
9
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
Will a commercial non-stop flight between Tokyo and Sao Paolo exist before the end of 2030?
Nov 4, 3:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
57.89%chance
328
OptionVotes
59
43
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